Dollar Tree stock
DLTRNASDAQDollar Tree, Inc., Consumer DefensiveISIN US2567461080
72Score 72 out of 100, Strong
Price and trend
89 / 100
Price history
+35% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 22% above it.
Since July 2026 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 59).
The price is 2.8% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 65% (April 2022 to November 2024).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$123.02
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$117.00
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)59
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$86.80
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$147.00
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Dollar Tree, Inc. belongs to the Discount Stores industry (United States) and, with a market value of $26.81B, is number 6 of 15 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $20.68B (up 6.5%) and adjusted earnings per share of $7.90 (up 36.2%).
- MEQIRI Score 72 out of 100 (Strong): rank 44 of 295 in Consumer Defensive, median 62.
Show more
- The P/E is 16.9 (Discount Stores median 21, own median of recent years 19.5).
- Our model puts fair value at $176.00, with the price 19% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Share buybacksShare count down 13% since 2020.Capital allocation 79
- Earnings turn into cashFree cash flow 115% of earnings over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 79
Weaknesses
- High debtDebt 2.24 times equity (latest quarter), Discount Stores median 1.42.Stability 54
Its standout strengths are momentum and technical analysis.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 71 to 72.
Fundamentals are strong, with strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk low
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the lowest crash risk among stocks ranked 101 to 1,000.
From 2016 to 2025, 9 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 15 in 100.
What lowers it
- price near its 52-week high
- solid fundamentals
- stable momentum
Valuation
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $125.71 and expensive above $293.33 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $174.17 (cash-flow model) and $177.83 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $161.64, at 7.8% it would be $197.52.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (21).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 1 Aug 2026, revenue fell 7.8% on the twelve months before. Up to 2022 the bars include businesses that were later spun off or sold. On a comparable basis, as restated in the SEC annual reports, revenue grew 6.9% a year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 36%, operating 8%, net 7%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterMeaningfully leveraged, but the interest bill is comfortably covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 24 Nov 2026in 12 days
- Last reported
- 27 Aug 2026EPS reported $2.70 (expected $1.15)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $7.900.0%
- Revenue
- $20.68B0.0%
- Earnings per share
- $7.89−0.1%
- Revenue
- $21.93B0.0%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: −3.0%Outlook raised: adjusted diluted EPS now $7.70 to $8.05, including a benefit of about $0.60 from net tariff refunds.
“Given the second quarter performance, updated tariff regime and net tariff refund benefit, updated TSA income and net interest expense assumption, we now expect adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $7.70 to $8.05, including an approximately $0.60 benefit related to the net impact of tariff refunds.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 27 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. 3 insiders sold, $1.8B in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
Partial trades from one filing are shown in one row, with the average price.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Dollar Tree
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
295 rated companies in Consumer Defensive
- This company
- 72
- Sector median
- 62
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Discount Stores
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Costco WholesaleCOST $481.95B71
- TargetTGT $73.91B70
- DollaramaDOL.TO $41.22B80
- Dollar GeneralDG $30.32B66
- Avenue SupermartsDMART.NS $24.14B53
- BJ's Wholesale Club HoldingsBJ $13.98B64
- BBB FoodsTBBB $8.14B49
- Pepco GroupPCO.WA $7.07B73
ETFs that hold Dollar Tree
Held by 100 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Invesco NASDAQ Next Generation 100 UCITS ETF AccEQQJ | 1.35% | 0.25% | €44.3M |
| Invesco Global Active ESG Equity UCITS ETF USD AccIQSA | 1.18% | 0.30% | €3.12B |
| State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Consumer Staples Select Sector UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPDS | 0.84% | 0.15% | €342.88M |
Show 5 more
| iShares S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector UCITS ETF2B7D | 0.79% | 0.15% | €518.36M |
| Xtrackers MSCI USA Consumer Staples UCITS ETF 1DXUCS | 0.77% | 0.12% | €107.01M |
| Xtrackers MSCI World Consumer Staples UCITS ETF 1CXDWS | 0.51% | 0.25% | €965.83M |
| iShares MSCI USA Mid-Cap Equal Weight UCITS ETFQDVC | 0.48% | 0.20% | €268.74M |
| First Trust US Large Cap Core AlphaDEX UCITS ETFFTGU | 0.43% | 0.75% | €140.24M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Jan 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 25 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.