Cricut stock: fair value
CRCTThe fair value of Cricut under our model is $17.02, the price is 50% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $11.35 and expensive above $34.04 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $24.48 (cash-flow model) and $9.56 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 11%. At 12% the fair value would be $15.42, at 10% it would be $19.14.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but weak growth.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (21.4).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 11.0% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.62 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $24.48 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 11.0%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 11.0%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $233.74M | extrapolated at 31.3% | 0.9006 | $210.49M |
| 2027 | $287.56M | extrapolated at 23.0% | 0.8110 | $233.21M |
| 2028 | $337.22M | extrapolated at 17.3% | 0.7303 | $246.29M |
| 2029 | $381.86M | extrapolated at 13.2% | 0.6577 | $251.15M |
| 2030 | $421.63M | extrapolated at 10.4% | 0.5923 | $249.73M |
| 2031 | $457.22M | extrapolated at 8.4% | 0.5334 | $243.88M |
| 2032 | $489.48M | extrapolated at 7.1% | 0.4803 | $235.12M |
| 2033 | $519.29M | extrapolated at 6.1% | 0.4326 | $224.63M |
| 2034 | $547.39M | extrapolated at 5.4% | 0.3896 | $213.24M |
| 2035 | $574.41M | extrapolated at 4.9% | 0.3508 | $201.51M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $2.31B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (11.0% − 3.8%) | $8.27B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3508) | $2.9B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $5.21B |
| Shares (diluted) | 212.81M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $24.48 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.45 |
| × 21.4 (industry P/E) | $9.56 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $17.02 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 5 Nov 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.