Carlyle Group stock: fair value
CGThe fair value of Carlyle Group under our model is $25.09, the price is 57% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $19.30 and expensive above $35.84 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.5%. At 10.5% the fair value would be $21.31, at 8.5% it would be $30.50.
Where the number comes from
From the dividend model alone; after a one-off collapse in earnings there is no industry value.
Dividend model: the dividend grows by 3.8% a year for good and is discounted at 9.5% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.26 times a risk premium of 4.5%).
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the dividend model arrives at $25.09 per share: next year's dividend divided by the gap between the discount rate and growth. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend per share | $1.36 |
| Next dividend: × (1 + 3.8%) | $1.41 |
| Value per share: next dividend / (9.5% − 3.8%) | $25.09 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $25.09 |
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak since 13 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.