Guosen Securities stock: fair value
002736.SZThe fair value of Guosen Securities under our model is $5.24, the price is 75% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $4.03 and expensive above $7.49 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $5.64 (cash-flow model) and $4.84 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.6%. At 13.6% the fair value would be $4.97, at 11.6% it would be $5.57.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (39.2).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 12.6% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 2 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $5.64 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.6%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.6%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.81B | extrapolated at 29.3% | 0.8882 | $3.39B |
| 2027 | $4.62B | extrapolated at 21.2% | 0.7889 | $3.65B |
| 2028 | $5.34B | extrapolated at 15.5% | 0.7006 | $3.74B |
| 2029 | $5.96B | extrapolated at 11.6% | 0.6223 | $3.71B |
| 2030 | $6.48B | extrapolated at 8.8% | 0.5527 | $3.58B |
| 2031 | $6.92B | extrapolated at 6.8% | 0.4909 | $3.4B |
| 2032 | $7.3B | extrapolated at 5.5% | 0.4360 | $3.18B |
| 2033 | $7.63B | extrapolated at 4.5% | 0.3873 | $2.96B |
| 2034 | $7.93B | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.3440 | $2.73B |
| 2035 | $8.2B | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.3055 | $2.5B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $32.83B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (12.6% − 2.3%) | $81.57B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3055) | $24.92B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $57.75B |
| Shares (diluted) | 10.24B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $5.64 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.12 |
| × 39.2 (industry P/E) | $4.84 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $5.24 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 16 Jan 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.