Carlyle Group stock
CGNASDAQThe Carlyle Group Inc., Financial ServicesISIN US14316J1088
48Score 48 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
45 / 100
Price history
−29% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 15 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 15% below it.
Since March 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 53).
The price is 40% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 15 years: 69% (January 2014 to February 2016).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$40.11
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$46.23
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)53
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$35.77
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$66.12
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- The Carlyle Group Inc. belongs to the Asset Management industry (United States) and, with a market value of $13.93B, is number 30 of 131 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $4.9B (up 19.8% year on year) and earnings of $808.7M (down 20.7%).
- MEQIRI Score 48 out of 100 (Weak): rank 874 of 975 in Financial Services, median 68.
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- The P/E is 39.3 because earnings over the last twelve months collapsed; on the expected earnings of the next twelve months it is 8.2 (Asset Management median 14). The P/E therefore does not count in the score.
- Our model puts fair value at $25.09, with the price 57% above it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings per share growingUp 17.8% a year since 2020.Growth 50
- Analysts expect strong earnings growthUp 20% a year through 2028 (estimates from 10 analysts).Growth 50
Weaknesses
- Above fair valuePrice 57% above the fair value of $25.09.Valuation 24
- Low return on equityReturn on equity 6.1% over the last 12 months.Profitability 33
Its standout strength is stability, while momentum and valuation hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 50 to 48.
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among stocks ranked 101 to 1,000.
From 2016 to 2025, 23 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 15 in 100.
What drives the risk
- price far below its 52-week high
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $19.30 and expensive above $35.84 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.5%. At 10.5% the fair value would be $21.31, at 8.5% it would be $30.50.
Valuation metrics
From the dividend model alone; after a one-off collapse in earnings there is no industry value.
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the quarter to 30 Sep 2026, revenue fell 57.2% on the same quarter a year earlier. Up to 2024 the bars include businesses that were later spun off or sold. On a comparable basis, as restated in the SEC annual reports, revenue grew 10.2% a year.
Margins
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: operating 26%, net 17%. Banks and insurers have no gross margin, and their net margin is not comparable with other industries. The score leaves both out. Last 12 months: net 10%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterFor banks and insurers, deposits and liabilities are the business. Debt to equity and the current ratio say little here, and the score does not rate them.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 4 Feb 2027in 83 days
- Last reported
- 5 Nov 2026EPS reported $1.12 (expected $0.97)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $3.49−1.0%
- Revenue
- $3.66B−0.6%
- Earnings per share
- $4.99−0.6%
- Revenue
- $4.89B−0.2%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: −3.5%No change to guidance: 2026 compensation ratio again around 47%, higher margin only expected in 2027 and 2028.
“Brennan, we expect the comp ratio this year to be roughly consistent with last year, around that 47%.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 5 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. One insider sold, $17.1M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Rubenstein David M.Sale
11 Sept 2026, Board
- Shares
- 400,000
- Price
- $42.74
- Value
- $17.1M
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Carlyle Group
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
975 rated companies in Financial Services
- This company
- 48
- Sector median
- 68
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Asset Management
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- DWS Group GmbH & Co. KGaADWS.DE $15.03B73
- Equitable HoldingsEQH $14.84B67
- Billionbrains Garage VenturesGROWW.NS $14.78B80
- IGM FinancialIGM.TO $14.13B78
- Ares CapitalARCC $13.8B61
- Guosen Securities002736.SZ $13.53B52
- Bajaj Holdings & InvestmentBAJAJHLDNG.NS $13.33B69
- SEI InvestmentsSEIC $12.92B85
ETFs that hold Carlyle Group
Held by 67 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| iShares Listed Private Equity UCITS ETFIQQL | 1.28% | 0.75% | €685.36M |
| State Street SPDR S&P 400 U.S. Mid Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)SPY4 | 0.32% | 0.30% | €5.36B |
| iShares MSCI USA Mid-Cap Equal Weight UCITS ETFQDVC | 0.29% | 0.20% | €272.21M |
Show 5 more
| Xtrackers MSCI USA Financials UCITS ETF 1DXUFN | 0.13% | 0.12% | €1.08B |
| Deka MSCI USA MC UCITS ETFEL41 | 0.13% | 0.30% | €52.63M |
| iShares MSCI World Mid-Cap Equal Weight UCITS ETF USDIS3T | 0.12% | 0.30% | €411.06M |
| Xtrackers MSCI World Financials UCITS ETF 1CXDWF | 0.07% | 0.25% | €1.45B |
| Invesco MSCI World Equal Weight UCITS ETF Acc AccumUSDMWEQ | 0.07% | 0.20% | €2.1B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak since 13 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.