Caterpillar stock
CATNYSECaterpillar Inc., IndustrialsISIN US1491231015
68Score 68 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
29 / 100
Price history
+5.9% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 26% below it.
Since October 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 33).
The price is 44% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 75% (July 2007 to March 2009).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$748.51
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$807.95
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)33
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$546.13
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$1,064.90
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Caterpillar Inc. belongs to the Agricultural (Machinery) industry (United States) and, with a market value of $275.29B, is the largest of 17 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $67.59B (up 4.3% year on year) and earnings of $8.87B (down 17.8%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $79.43B (up 17.5%) and adjusted earnings per share of $27.26 (up 42.9%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 68 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 272 of 1023 in Industrials, median 61.
- The P/E is 23.4 (Agricultural (Machinery) median 22.8, own median of recent years 17.3).
- Our model puts fair value at $784.31, with the price 23% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Reliable dividendNo dividend cut for 34 years.Capital allocation 88
- Earnings per share growingUp 28% a year since 2020.Growth 86
- Share buybacksShare count down 14% since 2020.Capital allocation 88
Weaknesses
- High debtDebt 2.1 times equity (latest quarter), Agricultural (Machinery) median 0.97.Stability 57
Its standout strengths are capital allocation and growth, while momentum and technical analysis hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 69 to 68.
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among the 100 largest stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 17 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 9 in 100.
What drives the risk
- price far below its 52-week high
- high price swings
- high growth grade (crashed more often in the backtest)
What lowers it
- solid fundamentals
- very large company
Valuation
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $560.22 and expensive above $1,307.19 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $984.39 (cash-flow model) and $584.23 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $694.65, at 7.8% it would be $919.49.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (22.8).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 20.3% on the twelve months before. Revenue has stayed largely stable since 2006.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 32%, operating 17%, net 13%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterMeaningfully leveraged, but the interest bill is comfortably covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 4 Feb 2027in 84 days
- Last reported
- 29 Oct 2026EPS reported $7.20 (expected $7.06)in line with expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $27.26−0.1%
- Revenue
- $79.43B−0.6%
- Earnings per share
- $32.27−1.0%
- Revenue
- $88.62B−0.3%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: −12.7%Caterpillar confirms its full year outlook: sales growth in the mid to high teens, adjusted operating margin near the bottom of the target range, and free cash flow in the top half of the 6 to 15 billion dollar target range.
“We also continue to expect MP&E free cash flow to be in the top half of our annual target range of $6 billion to $15 billion.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 29 Oct 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
One insider bought on the open market in the last 6 months, $620,390 in total. 3 insiders sold, $43.62M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
Partial trades from one filing are shown in one row, with the average price.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Caterpillar
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
1023 rated companies in Industrials
- This company
- 68
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Agricultural (Machinery)
The next smaller companies by market value
- DeereDE $186.51B64
- Traton8TRA.DE $19.33B58
- Kubota6326.T $17.91B63
- CNH IndustrialCNH $15.46B50
- Sinotruk (Hong Kong)3808.HK $12.33B66
- Ashok LeylandASHOKLEY.NS $10.9B60
- OshkoshOSK $8.61B73
- AGCOAGCO $7.91B54
ETFs that hold Caterpillar
Held by 128 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| iShares Dow Jones Industrial Average UCITS ETF (DE)EXI3 | 6.37% | 0.51% | €322.26M |
| WisdomTree Enhanced Commodity UCITS ETF EUR Hedged AccWTEH | 6.27% | 0.23% | €2.41B |
| iShares S&P 500 Industrials Sector UCITS ETF2B7C | 5.03% | 0.15% | €635.94M |
Show 5 more
| State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Industrials Select Sector UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPDI | 4.93% | 0.15% | €874.42M |
| Invesco S&P 500 QVM UCITS ETFQVMP | 3.61% | 0.35% | €50.82M |
| Xtrackers MSCI World Industrials UCITS ETF 1CXDWI | 2.80% | 0.25% | €1.21B |
| iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor UCITS ETFQDVA | 2.67% | 0.20% | €515.17M |
| L&G Battery Value-Chain UCITS ETFBATE | 2.53% | 0.49% | €668.78M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 22 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 10 Nov 2026, previously Undervalued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.