Advance Auto Parts stock
AAPNYSEAdvance Auto Parts, Inc., Consumer CyclicalISIN US00751Y1064
49Score 49 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
50 / 100
Price history
−11% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 12% below it.
Since September 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 46).
The price is 28% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 87% (November 2021 to April 2025).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$43.55
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$51.80
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)46
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$38.68
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$63.02
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Advance Auto Parts, Inc. belongs to the Specialty Retail industry (United States) and, with a market value of $2.76B, is number 50 of 86 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $8.52B (down 0.9%) and adjusted earnings per share of $2.95 (up 30.9%).
- MEQIRI Score 49 out of 100 (Weak): rank 463 of 596 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
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- The P/E is 22.4 (Specialty Retail median 22.8, own median of recent years 24.9).
- Our model puts fair value at $35.10, with the price 30% above it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Share buybacksShare count down 13% since 2020.Capital allocation 61
- Analysts expect strong earnings growthUp 18.3% a year through 2029 (estimates from 16 analysts).
Weaknesses
- Interest barely coveredOperating profit covers interest only 0.3 times.Stability 28
- Margin fallingOperating margin 1.9%, average of the prior years 5.7% (to 2024).Profitability 54
- High debtDebt 2.31 times equity (latest quarter), Specialty Retail median 1.02.Stability 28
The score is held back by growth and stability.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 50 to 49.
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- high price swings
Valuation
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $25.07 and expensive above $58.51 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $23.72 (cash-flow model) and $46.48 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.8%. At 13.8% the fair value would be $33.71, at 11.8% it would be $36.87.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (22.8).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 10 Oct 2026, revenue fell 0.3% on the twelve months before. Up to 2022 the bars include businesses that were later spun off or sold. On a comparable basis, as restated in the SEC annual reports, revenue grew 0.7% a year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 43%, operating 2%, net not measured.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is elevated. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 12 Feb 2027in 91 days
- Last reported
- 5 Nov 2026EPS reported $0.79 (expected $0.77)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $2.95−1.0%
- Revenue
- $8.52B−0.1%
- Earnings per share
- $3.83−1.6%
- Revenue
- $8.7B−0.2%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: −24.2%Adjusted diluted EPS guidance raised to $2.60 to $3.30 (higher interest income); guidance for sales, adjusted operating margin of 3.8% to 4.5% and free cash flow reaffirmed.
“We have reaffirmed full year adjusted operating income margin guidance between 3.8% to 4.5%, resulting in 130 to 200 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 20 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
- Soler Kristen LSale
13 Nov 2025, EVP, Chief HR Officer
- Shares
- 7,662
- Price
- $51.00
- Value
- $390,762
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Advance Auto Parts
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
596 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 49
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Specialty Retail
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Clas OhlsonCLAS-B.ST $3.52B80
- MINISO Group HoldingMNSO $3.42B62
- Warby ParkerWRBY $3.33B48
- LagardereMMB.PA $2.98B58
- Bob's Discount FurnitureBOBS $2.7B72
- RhRH $2.45B50
- POYA International5904.TWO $2.43B79
- ArhausARHS $1.92B71
ETFs that hold Advance Auto Parts
Held by 16 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avantis Global Small Cap Value UCITS ETFAVWS | 0.26% | 0.39% | €1.49B |
| iShares S&P SmallCap 600 UCITS ETFIUS3 | 0.15% | 0.30% | €2.31B |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.09% | 0.30% | €2.22B |
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| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.09% | 0.30% | €4.28B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.09% | 0.30% | €964.08M |
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.07% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRS | 0.03% | 0.45% | €1.54B |
| Invesco RAFI US Fundamental Value UCITS ETF6PSA | 0.03% | 0.39% | €1.25B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 3 Jan 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak since 13 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.