Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock stock: fair value
601869.SSThe fair value of Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock under our model is $29.91, the price is 35% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $19.94 and expensive above $59.82 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $22.28 (cash-flow model) and $37.54 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.6%. At 9.6% the fair value would be $28.21, at 7.6% it would be $32.28.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (31.8).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 8.6% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.22 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $22.28 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.6%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.6%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $481.75M | extrapolated at 51.9% | 0.9212 | $443.79M |
| 2027 | $660.09M | extrapolated at 37.0% | 0.8486 | $560.14M |
| 2028 | $835.7M | extrapolated at 26.6% | 0.7817 | $653.28M |
| 2029 | $997.13M | extrapolated at 19.3% | 0.7201 | $718.04M |
| 2030 | $1.14B | extrapolated at 14.2% | 0.6634 | $755.48M |
| 2031 | $1.26B | extrapolated at 10.6% | 0.6111 | $770.01M |
| 2032 | $1.36B | extrapolated at 8.1% | 0.5629 | $767.09M |
| 2033 | $1.45B | extrapolated at 6.4% | 0.5186 | $751.81M |
| 2034 | $1.52B | extrapolated at 5.2% | 0.4777 | $728.35M |
| 2035 | $1.59B | extrapolated at 4.3% | 0.4400 | $699.87M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $6.85B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (8.6% − 2.3%) | $26.06B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4400) | $11.47B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $18.31B |
| Shares (diluted) | 821.91M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $22.28 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.18 |
| × 31.8 (industry P/E) | $37.54 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $29.91 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 2 May 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.