Ubiquiti stock: fair value
UIThe fair value of Ubiquiti under our model is $564.19, the price is 21% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $402.99 and expensive above $940.32 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $559.55 (cash-flow model) and $568.83 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is slightly above both parts; given how much the stock swings, that still counts as fair.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.1%. At 10.1% the fair value would be $517.16, at 8.1% it would be $633.56.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (32.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 9.1% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.18 times a risk premium of 4.4%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $559.55 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.1%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $1.16B | extrapolated at 27.2% | 0.9168 | $1.07B |
| 2028 | $1.4B | extrapolated at 20.2% | 0.8405 | $1.17B |
| 2029 | $1.61B | extrapolated at 15.3% | 0.7706 | $1.24B |
| 2030 | $1.8B | extrapolated at 11.8% | 0.7065 | $1.27B |
| 2031 | $1.97B | extrapolated at 9.4% | 0.6478 | $1.28B |
| 2032 | $2.12B | extrapolated at 7.8% | 0.5939 | $1.26B |
| 2033 | $2.26B | extrapolated at 6.6% | 0.5445 | $1.23B |
| 2034 | $2.39B | extrapolated at 5.8% | 0.4992 | $1.19B |
| 2035 | $2.52B | extrapolated at 5.2% | 0.4577 | $1.15B |
| 2036 | $2.64B | extrapolated at 4.8% | 0.4196 | $1.11B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $11.98B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2036 × (1 + 3.8%) / (9.1% − 3.8%) | $52.23B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4196) | $21.91B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $33.89B |
| Shares (diluted) | 60.56M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $559.55 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $17.71 |
| × 32.1 (industry P/E) | $568.83 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $564.19 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 30 Jun 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong since 7 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.