ZTE stock: fair value
000063.SZThe fair value of ZTE under our model is $2.42, the price is 74% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $1.73 and expensive above $4.03 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $0.55 (cash-flow model) and $4.29 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.3%. At 11.3% the fair value would be $2.39, at 9.3% it would be $2.45.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (31.8).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 10.3% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.56 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $0.55 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $263.15M | extrapolated at −9.7% | 0.9064 | $238.52M |
| 2027 | $247.08M | extrapolated at −6.1% | 0.8216 | $203M |
| 2028 | $238.23M | extrapolated at −3.6% | 0.7447 | $177.41M |
| 2029 | $233.91M | extrapolated at −1.8% | 0.6750 | $157.89M |
| 2030 | $232.57M | extrapolated at −0.6% | 0.6118 | $142.29M |
| 2031 | $233.24M | extrapolated at 0.3% | 0.5545 | $129.34M |
| 2032 | $235.33M | extrapolated at 0.9% | 0.5026 | $118.29M |
| 2033 | $238.43M | extrapolated at 1.3% | 0.4556 | $108.63M |
| 2034 | $242.29M | extrapolated at 1.6% | 0.4130 | $100.06M |
| 2035 | $246.71M | extrapolated at 1.8% | 0.3743 | $92.35M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.47B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (10.3% − 2.3%) | $3.15B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3743) | $1.18B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $2.65B |
| Shares (diluted) | 4.84B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $0.55 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.13 |
| × 31.8 (industry P/E) | $4.29 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $2.42 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 6 Mar 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.