Rakuten Group stock
4755.TJPXRakuten Group, Inc., Consumer CyclicalISIN JP3967200001
36Score 36 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
42 / 100
Price history
−39% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 18% below it.
Since March 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 49).
The price is 40% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 80% (April 2015 to June 2023).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$4.23
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$4.81
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)49
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$3.80
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$6.61
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Rakuten Group, Inc. belongs to the Specialty Retail industry (Japan) and, with a market value of $8.64B, is number 31 of 86 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $15.63B (up 9.5% year on year) and a loss of $1.11B.
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $17.31B (up 10.7%) and adjusted earnings per share of −$0.04.
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- MEQIRI Score 36 out of 100 (Weak): rank 566 of 596 in Consumer Cyclical, median 61.
- Our model puts fair value at $13.76, with the price 71% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
None of our strength checks applies.
Weaknesses
- DilutionShare count up 59% since 2020.Capital allocation 10
- Interest barely coveredOperating profit covers interest only 0.7 times.Stability 37
- High debtDebt 3.64 times equity (latest quarter), Specialty Retail median 0.57.Stability 37
Its standout strength is valuation, while profitability and capital allocation hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamental quality fluctuates.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk not measured
How well MEQIRI warnsFor stocks from Japan, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, Canada, India and Brazil we only show crash risk once a separate backtest shows that it warns as well there as in the US and Europe.
Valuation
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $10.58 and expensive above $19.65 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 11.3%. At 12.3% the fair value would be $13.16, at 10.3% it would be $14.44.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50, high risk, weak balance sheet.
Valuation metrics
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Jun 2026, revenue rose 10.9% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2006, at around 14% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 4%, operating 4%, net −7%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is elevated. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 13 Nov 2026today
- Last reported
- 10 Aug 2026EPS reported $0.02 (expected −$0.06)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 23 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- −$0.040.0%
- Revenue
- $17.31B0.0%
- Earnings per share
- $0.120.0%
- Revenue
- $18.64B0.0%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 23 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
What happened at Rakuten Group
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
596 rated companies in Consumer Cyclical
- This company
- 36
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Specialty Retail
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Nitori Holdings9843.T $12.12B65
- FSN E-Commerce VenturesNYKAA.NS $10.97B69
- Murphy USAMUSA $9.68B76
- ChewyCHWY $9.08B62
- Sanrio8136.T $8.47B72
- AvoltaAVOL.SW $8.32B54
- Canadian TireCTC.TO $8.3B58
- ZalandoZAL.DE $7.7B67
ETFs that hold Rakuten Group
Held by 101 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amundi MSCI Japan SRI Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF DR Hedged EUR (D)JPNE | 1.99% | 0.20% | €506.44M |
| L&G Ecommerce Logistics UCITS ETFETLH | 1.86% | 0.49% | €62.57M |
| iShares MSCI Japan CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFEDMJ | 0.58% | 0.15% | €1.28B |
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| Amundi MSCI Japan ESG Broad Transition UCITS ETF EUR AccJ1GR | 0.50% | 0.15% | €1.36B |
| UBS MSCI Japan Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hEUR accU1FB | 0.44% | 0.22% | €531.19M |
| UBS MSCI Pacific Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD accUSUP | 0.33% | 0.28% | €756.17M |
| iShares Digitalisation UCITS ETF2B79 | 0.24% | 0.40% | €736.08M |
| Xtrackers MSCI Japan ESG UCITS ETF 1CXZMJ | 0.24% | 0.20% | €2.71B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = ¥159.70)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 21 Feb 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.