Valero Energy stock
VLONYSEValero Energy Corporation, EnergyISIN US91913Y1001
75Score 75 out of 100, Strong
Price and trend
64 / 100
Price history
+101% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 24% above it.
Since July 2025 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 31).
The price is 21% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 82% (July 2007 to November 2008).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$399.61
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$292.82
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)31
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$161.94
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$459.78
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Valero Energy Corporation belongs to the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry (United States) and, with a market value of $101.43B, is number 3 of 31 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $122.69B (down 5.5% year on year) and earnings of $2.35B (down 15.2%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $165.01B (up 34.5%) and adjusted earnings per share of $59.69 (up 460.4%).
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- MEQIRI Score 75 out of 100 (Strong): rank 28 of 266 in Energy, median 60.
- The P/E is 8 (Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median 7.5, own median of recent years 13.8).
- Our model puts fair value at $344.83, with the price 5% above it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Share buybacksShare count down 24% since 2020.Capital allocation 92
- Reliable dividendNo dividend cut for 16 years.Capital allocation 92
- Earnings turn into cashFree cash flow 116% of earnings over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 88
Weaknesses
- Analysts expect falling earningsDown 23.9% a year through 2028 (estimates from 11 analysts).Growth 65
Its standout strengths are capital allocation and fundamentals.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 74 to 75.
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among stocks ranked 101 to 1,000.
From 2016 to 2025, 23 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 15 in 100.
What drives the risk
- price up very strongly over the past year
- cyclical sector (energy or materials), as a group, crashed more often in the backtest
What lowers it
- solid fundamentals
Valuation
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $265.26 and expensive above $492.62 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $350.83 (cash-flow model) and $338.84 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is slightly above both parts; given how much the stock swings, that still counts as fair.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $324.11, at 7.8% it would be $375.45.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (7.5).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 19.3% on the twelve months before. Revenue has stayed largely stable since 2006.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 4%, operating 4%, net 2%. Last 12 months: net 8%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterModerate debt, and interest is adequately covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 28 Jan 2027in 77 days
- Last reported
- 22 Oct 2026EPS reported $23.90 (expected $21.17)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have raised their 2027 earnings estimate by 14.1% since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $59.69+13.2%
- Revenue
- $165.01B+1.6%
- Earnings per share
- $52.70+14.1%
- Revenue
- $145.44B+0.6%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: +3.8%2026 capital investments of about $2 billion; third quarter throughput ranges given by region, with no clear change versus before.
“Turning to guidance, we expect capital investments attributable to Valero for 2026 to be approximately $2 billion.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 30 Jul 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. One insider sold, $5.68M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Valero Energy
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
266 rated companies in Energy
- This company
- 75
- Sector median
- 60
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Reliance IndustriesRELIANCE.NS $192.87B57
- Marathon PetroleumMPC $109.69B75
- Phillips 66PSX $100.9B75
- Formosa Petrochemical6505.TW $26.45B77
- NesteNESTE.HE $23.39B71
- Indian OilIOC.NS $22.36B70
- ENEOS Holdings5020.T $20.6B63
- HF SinclairDINO $17.43B76
ETFs that hold Valero Energy
Held by 106 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amundi Global Bioenergy UCITS ETF EUR AccWDNR | 7.30% | 0.35% | €151.65M |
| iShares S&P 500 Energy Sector UCITS ETFQDVF | 4.49% | 0.15% | €1.6B |
| Xtrackers MSCI USA Energy UCITS ETF 1DXUEN | 4.48% | 0.12% | €126.6M |
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| State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Energy Select Sector UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPDE | 4.48% | 0.15% | €848.33M |
| Xtrackers MSCI World Energy UCITS ETF 1CXDW0 | 2.86% | 0.25% | €1.83B |
| iShares MSCI World Energy Sector UCITS ETF USD5MVW | 2.82% | 0.18% | €1.31B |
| Invesco S&P 500 QVM UCITS ETFQVMP | 2.06% | 0.35% | €50.82M |
| Invesco Global Buyback Achievers UCITS ETFBBCK | 1.67% | 0.39% | €188.08M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 26 Jun 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.