Vermilion Energy stock: fair value
VETThe fair value of Vermilion Energy under our model is $15.75, the price is 31% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $11.25 and expensive above $26.25 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.2%. At 9.2% the fair value would be $13.25, at 7.2% it would be $19.49.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50, high risk.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.2%. Discounted at 8.2% (floor: government bond yield 3.2% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $15.75 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $170.52M | extrapolated at −14.9% | 0.9246 | $157.67M |
| 2027 | $154.35M | extrapolated at −9.5% | 0.8550 | $131.97M |
| 2028 | $145.57M | extrapolated at −5.7% | 0.7905 | $115.08M |
| 2029 | $141.15M | extrapolated at −3.0% | 0.7310 | $103.17M |
| 2030 | $139.48M | extrapolated at −1.2% | 0.6759 | $94.27M |
| 2031 | $139.64M | extrapolated at 0.1% | 0.6249 | $87.27M |
| 2032 | $141.07M | extrapolated at 1.0% | 0.5778 | $81.52M |
| 2033 | $143.42M | extrapolated at 1.7% | 0.5343 | $76.63M |
| 2034 | $146.45M | extrapolated at 2.1% | 0.4940 | $72.35M |
| 2035 | $149.99M | extrapolated at 2.4% | 0.4568 | $68.52M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $988.45M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.2%) / (8.2% − 3.2%) | $3.09B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4568) | $1.41B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $2.4B |
| Shares (diluted) | 152.53M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $15.75 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $15.75 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CA$1.4249)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak since 8 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 8 Nov 2026, previously Undervalued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.