Vedanta stock: fair value
VEDL.NSThe fair value of Vedanta under our model is $4.30, the price is 36% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $2.87 and expensive above $8.60 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 16.5%. At 17.5% the fair value would be $3.91, at 15.5% it would be $4.78.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; the profit includes one-off items, so there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 6.9%. Discounted at 16.5% (government bond yield 6.9% plus beta 1.36 times a risk premium of 7.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $4.30 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 16.5%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 16.5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $1.9B | extrapolated at −2.6% | 0.8581 | $1.63B |
| 2028 | $1.9B | extrapolated at 0.2% | 0.7364 | $1.4B |
| 2029 | $1.95B | extrapolated at 2.3% | 0.6319 | $1.23B |
| 2030 | $2.02B | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.5422 | $1.09B |
| 2031 | $2.11B | extrapolated at 4.6% | 0.4653 | $982.4M |
| 2032 | $2.22B | extrapolated at 5.3% | 0.3993 | $887.95M |
| 2033 | $2.35B | extrapolated at 5.8% | 0.3426 | $806.27M |
| 2034 | $2.5B | extrapolated at 6.2% | 0.2940 | $734.43M |
| 2035 | $2.66B | extrapolated at 6.4% | 0.2523 | $670.49M |
| 2036 | $2.83B | extrapolated at 6.6% | 0.2165 | $613.07M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $10.05B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2036 × (1 + 6.9%) / (16.5% − 6.9%) | $31.56B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.2165) | $6.83B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $16.88B |
| Shares (diluted) | 3.92B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $4.30 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $4.30 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 31 Mar 2026
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = ₹94.0836)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 1 May 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.