Xiamen Tungsten stock: fair value
600549.SSThe fair value of Xiamen Tungsten under our model is $3.41, the price is 62% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $2.27 and expensive above $6.82 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $2.16 (cash-flow model) and $4.67 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.3%. At 11.3% the fair value would be $3.28, at 9.3% it would be $3.58.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (13.2).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 10.3% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.55 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $2.16 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $173.73M | extrapolated at 28.5% | 0.9068 | $157.53M |
| 2027 | $209.56M | extrapolated at 20.6% | 0.8223 | $172.32M |
| 2028 | $241.28M | extrapolated at 15.1% | 0.7456 | $179.9M |
| 2029 | $268.51M | extrapolated at 11.3% | 0.6761 | $181.55M |
| 2030 | $291.59M | extrapolated at 8.6% | 0.6131 | $178.77M |
| 2031 | $311.15M | extrapolated at 6.7% | 0.5559 | $172.98M |
| 2032 | $327.91M | extrapolated at 5.4% | 0.5041 | $165.31M |
| 2033 | $342.56M | extrapolated at 4.5% | 0.4571 | $156.6M |
| 2034 | $355.64M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.4145 | $147.42M |
| 2035 | $367.61M | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.3759 | $138.18M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.65B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (10.3% − 2.3%) | $4.72B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3759) | $1.77B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $3.42B |
| Shares (diluted) | 1.59B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $2.16 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.35 |
| × 13.2 (industry P/E) | $4.67 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $3.41 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 9 Jan 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.