Toscana Aeroporti stock: fair value
TYA.MIThe fair value of Toscana Aeroporti under our model is $31.32, the price is 37% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $22.37 and expensive above $52.20 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $47.93 (cash-flow model) and $14.71 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10%. At 11% the fair value would be $27.91, at 9% it would be $35.98.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (16.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.5%. Discounted at 10.0% (government bond yield 3.5% plus beta 0.97 times a risk premium of 6.7%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $47.93 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.0%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.0%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $35.38M | extrapolated at 31.7% | 0.9089 | $32.15M |
| 2027 | $43.6M | extrapolated at 23.3% | 0.8261 | $36.02M |
| 2028 | $51.16M | extrapolated at 17.3% | 0.7508 | $38.41M |
| 2029 | $57.9M | extrapolated at 13.2% | 0.6824 | $39.51M |
| 2030 | $63.86M | extrapolated at 10.3% | 0.6202 | $39.6M |
| 2031 | $69.13M | extrapolated at 8.3% | 0.5637 | $38.96M |
| 2032 | $73.85M | extrapolated at 6.8% | 0.5123 | $37.83M |
| 2033 | $78.15M | extrapolated at 5.8% | 0.4656 | $36.39M |
| 2034 | $82.17M | extrapolated at 5.1% | 0.4232 | $34.77M |
| 2035 | $85.99M | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.3846 | $33.07M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $366.73M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.5%) / (10.0% − 3.5%) | $1.37B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3846) | $525.37M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $892.09M |
| Shares (diluted) | 18.61M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $47.93 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.91 |
| × 16.1 (industry P/E) | $14.71 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $31.32 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 May 2024)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.