Ternium stock
TXNYSETernium S.A., Basic MaterialsISIN US8808901081
59Score 59 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
56 / 100
Price history
+37% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 5.2% above it.
Since August 2025 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Sharply down: the price has fallen very quickly lately (RSI 29).
The price is 15% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 90% (June 2008 to November 2008).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$55.56
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$47.97
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)29
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$35.26
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$59.69
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Ternium S.A. belongs to the Steel industry (Luxembourg) and, with a market value of $9.9B, is number 14 of 42 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- This is an American depositary receipt (ADR).
- MEQIRI Score 59 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 220 of 461 in Basic Materials, median 57.
Show more
- The P/E is 10.4 (Steel median 17.2, own median of recent years 7.3).
- Our model puts fair value at $134.07, with the price 62% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Below fair valuePrice 62% below the fair value of $134.07.Valuation 97
- High dividend yieldDividend yield 4.36%, Steel median 1.84%.Capital allocation 55
- Growing faster than its industryRevenue up 12.3% a year since 2020, Steel median 6.8%.
Weaknesses
- Margin fallingOperating margin 4.5%, average of the prior years 12.5% (to 2024).Profitability 44
- Negative free cash flowFree cash flow −$83.21M over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 56
- Earnings per share fallingDown 11.1% a year since 2020.Growth 48
Its standout strengths are valuation and stability, while growth and profitability hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 60 to 59.
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- cyclical sector (energy or materials), as a group, crashed more often in the backtest
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $95.76 and expensive above $223.45 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $184.31 (cash-flow model) and $83.83 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.5%. At 10.5% the fair value would be $119.59, at 8.5% it would be $154.85.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (17.2).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 6.1% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2006, at about 5% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 15%, operating 5%, net 3%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterLow debt, and interest is adequately covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 17 Feb 2027in 96 days
- Last reported
- 3 Nov 2026below expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- 6.34+0.7%
- Revenue
- $17.4B−0.2%
- Earnings per share
- 7.63+2.0%
- Revenue
- $18.35B0.0%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: +3.1%No guidance change: higher shipments and EBITDA than in the second quarter are expected in the third quarter, with 2026 capital spending of $1.6 billion.
“With this, we are leaving behind the peak of our investment cycle and expect CapEx of $1.6 billion for the full year 2026, moderating to around $1.2 billion next year.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 5 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Ternium
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
461 rated companies in Basic Materials
- This company
- 59
- Sector median
- 57
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Steel
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union600010.SS $14.95B31
- Carpenter TechnologyCRS $14.84B62
- Jindal Steel & PowerJINDALSTEL.NS $12.58B48
- Lloyds Metals and EnergyLLOYDSME.NS $10.84B69
- SSABSSAB-B.ST $9.39B58
- Citic Pacific Special Steel Group000708.SZ $9.32B55
- China Steel2002.TW $8.63B36
- Steel Authority of IndiaSAIL.NS $7.8B58
ETFs that hold Ternium
Held by 1 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| iShares EM Dividend UCITS ETFEUNY | 0.95% | 0.65% | €1.25B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 6 Jun 2025)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.