Tourmaline Oil stock: fair value
TOU.TOThe fair value of Tourmaline Oil under our model is $19.28, the price is 138% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $14.83 and expensive above $27.55 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $14.51 (cash-flow model) and $24.06 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.2%. At 9.2% the fair value would be $18.14, at 7.2% it would be $20.99.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (16.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.2%. Discounted at 8.2% (floor: government bond yield 3.2% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $14.51 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $419.45M | extrapolated at −17.1% | 0.9246 | $387.84M |
| 2027 | $373.3M | extrapolated at −11.0% | 0.8550 | $319.16M |
| 2028 | $348.08M | extrapolated at −6.8% | 0.7905 | $275.17M |
| 2029 | $334.9M | extrapolated at −3.8% | 0.7310 | $244.8M |
| 2030 | $329.2M | extrapolated at −1.7% | 0.6759 | $222.5M |
| 2031 | $328.38M | extrapolated at −0.3% | 0.6249 | $205.22M |
| 2032 | $330.91M | extrapolated at 0.8% | 0.5778 | $191.22M |
| 2033 | $335.83M | extrapolated at 1.5% | 0.5343 | $179.43M |
| 2034 | $342.49M | extrapolated at 2.0% | 0.4940 | $169.2M |
| 2035 | $350.48M | extrapolated at 2.3% | 0.4568 | $160.1M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $2.35B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.2%) / (8.2% − 3.2%) | $7.23B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4568) | $3.3B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $5.66B |
| Shares (diluted) | 390.01M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $14.51 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.49 |
| × 16.1 (industry P/E) | $24.06 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $19.28 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CA$1.4249)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral since 11 Nov 2026, previously Weak
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.