Aker BP stock: fair value
AKRBP.OLThe fair value of Aker BP under our model is $39.92, the price is 14% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $30.71 and expensive above $57.03 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $42.77 (cash-flow model) and $37.07 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $36.44, at 7.8% it would be $45.13.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (11.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $42.77 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.62B | extrapolated at −5.9% | 0.9189 | $1.49B |
| 2027 | $1.58B | extrapolated at −2.9% | 0.8443 | $1.33B |
| 2028 | $1.56B | extrapolated at −0.9% | 0.7758 | $1.21B |
| 2029 | $1.57B | extrapolated at 0.5% | 0.7129 | $1.12B |
| 2030 | $1.59B | extrapolated at 1.5% | 0.6550 | $1.04B |
| 2031 | $1.63B | extrapolated at 2.2% | 0.6019 | $980.17M |
| 2032 | $1.67B | extrapolated at 2.7% | 0.5530 | $924.87M |
| 2033 | $1.72B | extrapolated at 3.0% | 0.5082 | $875.59M |
| 2034 | $1.78B | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.4669 | $830.87M |
| 2035 | $1.84B | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.4291 | $789.71M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $10.6B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $38.22B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $16.4B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $27B |
| Shares (diluted) | 631.25M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $42.77 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $3.35 |
| × 11.1 (industry P/E) | $37.07 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $39.92 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = NOK 9.5325)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 18 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.