SP Group stock: fair value
SPG.COThe fair value of SP Group under our model is $100.83, the price is 32% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $77.56 and expensive above $144.04 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $98.96 (cash-flow model) and $102.70 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.2%. At 8.2% the fair value would be $92.20, at 6.2% it would be $113.81.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (24.4).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.2%. Discounted at 7.2% (floor: government bond yield 2.2% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 1.01 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $98.96 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $38.51M | extrapolated at 24.3% | 0.9332 | $35.94M |
| 2027 | $45.31M | extrapolated at 17.7% | 0.8708 | $39.46M |
| 2028 | $51.2M | extrapolated at 13.0% | 0.8126 | $41.61M |
| 2029 | $56.19M | extrapolated at 9.8% | 0.7583 | $42.62M |
| 2030 | $60.39M | extrapolated at 7.5% | 0.7077 | $42.74M |
| 2031 | $63.95M | extrapolated at 5.9% | 0.6604 | $42.23M |
| 2032 | $66.99M | extrapolated at 4.8% | 0.6163 | $41.29M |
| 2033 | $69.66M | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.5751 | $40.06M |
| 2034 | $72.05M | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.5367 | $38.67M |
| 2035 | $74.25M | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.5008 | $37.19M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $401.79M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.2%) / (7.2% − 2.2%) | $1.52B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.5008) | $759.81M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.16B |
| Shares (diluted) | 11.74M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $98.96 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $4.20 |
| × 24.4 (industry P/E) | $102.70 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $100.83 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = DKK 6.7461)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 3 Jul 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.