Mativ Holdings stock: fair value
MATVThe fair value of Mativ Holdings under our model is $16.85, the price is 29% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $12.04 and expensive above $28.09 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 11.9%. At 12.9% the fair value would be $15.01, at 10.9% it would be $19.21.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but high risk.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; the profit includes one-off items, so there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 11.9% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.81 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $16.85 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 11.9%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 11.9%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $79.93M | extrapolated at 0.2% | 0.8937 | $71.44M |
| 2027 | $80.94M | extrapolated at 1.3% | 0.7988 | $64.66M |
| 2028 | $82.59M | extrapolated at 2.0% | 0.7139 | $58.96M |
| 2029 | $84.72M | extrapolated at 2.6% | 0.6380 | $54.05M |
| 2030 | $87.22M | extrapolated at 2.9% | 0.5702 | $49.73M |
| 2031 | $90.02M | extrapolated at 3.2% | 0.5096 | $45.88M |
| 2032 | $93.08M | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.4555 | $42.4M |
| 2033 | $96.36M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.4071 | $39.23M |
| 2034 | $99.85M | extrapolated at 3.6% | 0.3638 | $36.33M |
| 2035 | $103.53M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.3252 | $33.66M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $496.34M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (11.9% − 3.8%) | $1.33B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3252) | $433.7M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $930.04M |
| Shares (diluted) | 55.19M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $16.85 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $16.85 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 18 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.