Savencia stock: fair value
SAVE.PAThe fair value of Savencia under our model is $128.70, the price is 51% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $99.00 and expensive above $183.86 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $160.14 (cash-flow model) and $97.27 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.8%. At 8.8% the fair value would be $115.11, at 6.8% it would be $149.11.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (18.5).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.8%. Discounted at 7.8% (floor: government bond yield 2.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.95 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $160.14 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $106.57M | extrapolated at 10.9% | 0.9278 | $98.87M |
| 2027 | $115.6M | extrapolated at 8.5% | 0.8608 | $99.51M |
| 2028 | $123.42M | extrapolated at 6.8% | 0.7987 | $98.57M |
| 2029 | $130.29M | extrapolated at 5.6% | 0.7410 | $96.55M |
| 2030 | $136.46M | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.6876 | $93.82M |
| 2031 | $142.11M | extrapolated at 4.2% | 0.6379 | $90.66M |
| 2032 | $147.43M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.5919 | $87.26M |
| 2033 | $152.51M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.5492 | $83.75M |
| 2034 | $157.47M | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.5095 | $80.23M |
| 2035 | $162.36M | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.4727 | $76.75M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $905.98M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.8%) / (7.8% − 2.8%) | $3.34B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4727) | $1.58B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $2.48B |
| Shares (diluted) | 15.51M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $160.14 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $5.26 |
| × 18.5 (industry P/E) | $97.27 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $128.70 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 18 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.