John B. Sanfilippo & Son stock: fair value
JBSSThe fair value of John B. Sanfilippo & Son under our model is $106.18, the price is 47% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $81.68 and expensive above $151.69 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $124.34 (cash-flow model) and $88.02 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $95.78, at 7.8% it would be $121.78.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (18.5).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $124.34 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $71.69M | extrapolated at 5.2% | 0.9189 | $65.87M |
| 2028 | $75.13M | extrapolated at 4.8% | 0.8443 | $63.44M |
| 2029 | $78.52M | extrapolated at 4.5% | 0.7758 | $60.92M |
| 2030 | $81.91M | extrapolated at 4.3% | 0.7129 | $58.39M |
| 2031 | $85.32M | extrapolated at 4.2% | 0.6550 | $55.88M |
| 2032 | $88.78M | extrapolated at 4.1% | 0.6019 | $53.44M |
| 2033 | $92.33M | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.5530 | $51.06M |
| 2034 | $95.97M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.5082 | $48.77M |
| 2035 | $99.72M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.4669 | $46.57M |
| 2036 | $103.6M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.4291 | $44.45M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $548.79M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2036 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $2.15B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $923.05M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.47B |
| Shares (diluted) | 11.84M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $124.34 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $4.76 |
| × 18.5 (industry P/E) | $88.02 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $106.18 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 25 Jun 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 17 Jul 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.