Rocky Brands stock: fair value
RCKYThe fair value of Rocky Brands under our model is $74.75, the price is 31% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $53.39 and expensive above $124.58 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $70.08 (cash-flow model) and $79.42 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.1%. At 10.1% the fair value would be $68.75, at 8.1% it would be $83.61.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (17.5).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 9.1% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.17 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $70.08 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.1%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $15.41M | extrapolated at 37.0% | 0.9169 | $14.13M |
| 2027 | $19.57M | extrapolated at 27.0% | 0.8407 | $16.45M |
| 2028 | $23.5M | extrapolated at 20.1% | 0.7708 | $18.11M |
| 2029 | $27.07M | extrapolated at 15.2% | 0.7068 | $19.13M |
| 2030 | $30.26M | extrapolated at 11.8% | 0.6481 | $19.61M |
| 2031 | $33.11M | extrapolated at 9.4% | 0.5942 | $19.67M |
| 2032 | $35.67M | extrapolated at 7.7% | 0.5448 | $19.43M |
| 2033 | $38.01M | extrapolated at 6.6% | 0.4996 | $18.99M |
| 2034 | $40.19M | extrapolated at 5.7% | 0.4580 | $18.41M |
| 2035 | $42.27M | extrapolated at 5.2% | 0.4200 | $17.75M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $181.7M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (9.1% − 3.8%) | $838.65M |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4200) | $352.21M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $533.91M |
| Shares (diluted) | 7.62M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $70.08 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $4.53 |
| × 17.5 (industry P/E) | $79.42 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $74.75 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong since 10 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 11 Nov 2026, previously Fairly valued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.