NexPoint Residential Trust stock: fair value
NXRTThe fair value of NexPoint Residential Trust under our model is $29.78, the price is 48% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $22.91 and expensive above $42.55 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $25.03 (cash-flow model) and $34.53 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.2%. At 13.2% the fair value would be $28.46, at 11.2% it would be $31.46.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50, high risk.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from FFO per share times the median price to FFO of the REIT industry (15.3). For REITs, depreciation on buildings depresses earnings, so FFO counts instead of earnings, here following the industry rule (Nareit) from the filings with the SEC: gains on property sales are deducted where the company reports them in the standard items. The cash-flow model uses AFFO: operating cash flow less maintenance, estimated at 9% of revenue, and less preferred dividends. New construction and acquisitions do not count as running costs there.
Ten-year cash-flow model on AFFO over the last twelve months: it grows for 2 years with the revenue analysts estimate, then extrapolated until growth reaches 3.8% (five-year average government bond yield). Discounted at 12.2% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.87 times a risk premium of 4.5%).
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $25.03 per share: AFFO for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | AFFO | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $57.04M | Estimate, 3 analysts | 0.8915 | $50.85M |
| 2027 | $57.97M | Estimate, 3 analysts | 0.7947 | $46.07M |
| 2028 | $59M | extrapolated at 1.8% | 0.7085 | $41.8M |
| 2029 | $60.41M | extrapolated at 2.4% | 0.6316 | $38.15M |
| 2030 | $62.11M | extrapolated at 2.8% | 0.5630 | $34.97M |
| 2031 | $64.05M | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.5019 | $32.15M |
| 2032 | $66.19M | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.4475 | $29.62M |
| 2033 | $68.5M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.3989 | $27.32M |
| 2034 | $70.95M | extrapolated at 3.6% | 0.3556 | $25.23M |
| 2035 | $73.55M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.3170 | $23.32M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $349.48M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (12.2% − 3.8%) | $915.23M |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3170) | $290.14M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $639.62M |
| Shares (diluted) | 25.55M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $25.03 |
| FFO per share | $2.26 |
| × 15.3 (price/FFO of the REIT industry) | $34.53 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $29.78 |
In the years with estimates, AFFO grows in line with the revenue analysts expect. The model uses AFFO after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 28 Feb 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.