Morgan Stanley stock: fair value
MSThe fair value of Morgan Stanley under our model is $163.27, the price is 17% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $125.59 and expensive above $233.24 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $152.64 (excess return model) and $173.89 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is slightly above both parts; given how much the stock swings, that still counts as fair.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 11.2%. At 12.2% the fair value would be $154.14, at 10.2% it would be $175.26.
Where the number comes from
Half from the excess return model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (13.7).
Excess return model for banks and insurers: book value plus the value of returns above the cost of equity of 11.2% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.65 times a risk premium of 4.5%).
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the excess return model arrives at $152.64 per share: book value plus the value of what the company earns above its cost of equity over time. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Book value per share | $74.78 |
| Stable earnings per share (analyst estimates) | $14.10 |
| Return on equity in the model (stable earnings divided by book value) | 18.9% |
| Cost of equity | 11.2% |
| Excess return per share: (return − cost) × book value | $5.73 |
| Terminal value of excess returns: excess return / (11.2% − 3.8%) | $77.86 |
| Value per share (book value plus terminal value) | $152.64 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $12.67 |
| × 13.7 (industry P/E) | $173.89 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $163.27 |
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 18 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.