Modivo stock: fair value
MDV.WAThe fair value of Modivo under our model is $31.20, the price is 9% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $22.29 and expensive above $52.01 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.8%. At 13.8% the fair value would be $27.14, at 11.8% it would be $36.60.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 5.6%. Discounted at 12.8% (government bond yield 5.6% plus beta 1.35 times a risk premium of 5.3%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $31.20 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $109.4M | extrapolated at 32.4% | 0.8868 | $97.02M |
| 2028 | $136.03M | extrapolated at 24.3% | 0.7865 | $106.98M |
| 2029 | $161.47M | extrapolated at 18.7% | 0.6974 | $112.61M |
| 2030 | $185.3M | extrapolated at 14.8% | 0.6185 | $114.61M |
| 2031 | $207.53M | extrapolated at 12.0% | 0.5485 | $113.83M |
| 2032 | $228.43M | extrapolated at 10.1% | 0.4864 | $111.11M |
| 2033 | $248.34M | extrapolated at 8.7% | 0.4314 | $107.12M |
| 2034 | $267.63M | extrapolated at 7.8% | 0.3825 | $102.38M |
| 2035 | $286.65M | extrapolated at 7.1% | 0.3393 | $97.24M |
| 2036 | $305.69M | extrapolated at 6.6% | 0.3009 | $91.97M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.05B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2036 × (1 + 5.6%) / (12.8% − 5.6%) | $4.48B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3009) | $1.35B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $2.4B |
| Shares (diluted) | 77.00M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $31.20 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $31.20 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Jan 2026
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = PLN 3.9742)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 5 Jun 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.