MediaAlpha stock: fair value
MAXThe fair value of MediaAlpha under our model is $26.59, the price is 44% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $18.99 and expensive above $44.31 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $25.57 (cash-flow model) and $27.60 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.1%. At 11.1% the fair value would be $24.76, at 9.1% it would be $29.12.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but high risk.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (16.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 10.1% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.4 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $25.57 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.1%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $77.39M | extrapolated at 18.4% | 0.9084 | $70.3M |
| 2027 | $88.23M | extrapolated at 14.0% | 0.8252 | $72.81M |
| 2028 | $97.9M | extrapolated at 11.0% | 0.7496 | $73.39M |
| 2029 | $106.54M | extrapolated at 8.8% | 0.6809 | $72.54M |
| 2030 | $114.34M | extrapolated at 7.3% | 0.6186 | $70.72M |
| 2031 | $121.51M | extrapolated at 6.3% | 0.5619 | $68.28M |
| 2032 | $128.25M | extrapolated at 5.5% | 0.5104 | $65.46M |
| 2033 | $134.69M | extrapolated at 5.0% | 0.4637 | $62.45M |
| 2034 | $140.98M | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.4212 | $59.38M |
| 2035 | $147.21M | extrapolated at 4.4% | 0.3826 | $56.32M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $671.65M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (10.1% − 3.8%) | $2.44B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3826) | $935.07M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.61B |
| Shares (diluted) | 62.83M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $25.57 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.72 |
| × 16.1 (industry P/E) | $27.60 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $26.59 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 22 Nov 2024)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.