ORIX stock: fair value
IXThe fair value of ORIX under our model is $67.08, the price is 50% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $51.60 and expensive above $95.83 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $70.97 (cash-flow model) and $63.19 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.2%. At 9.2% the fair value would be $62.75, at 7.2% it would be $72.82.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (11.8).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 1.1%. Discounted at 8.2% (government bond yield 1.1% plus beta 1.4 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $70.97 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $5.58B | extrapolated at 1.3% | 0.9239 | $5.15B |
| 2028 | $5.65B | extrapolated at 1.2% | 0.8536 | $4.82B |
| 2029 | $5.71B | extrapolated at 1.2% | 0.7886 | $4.51B |
| 2030 | $5.78B | extrapolated at 1.1% | 0.7286 | $4.21B |
| 2031 | $5.84B | extrapolated at 1.1% | 0.6732 | $3.93B |
| 2032 | $5.91B | extrapolated at 1.1% | 0.6219 | $3.67B |
| 2033 | $5.97B | extrapolated at 1.1% | 0.5746 | $3.43B |
| 2034 | $6.04B | extrapolated at 1.1% | 0.5309 | $3.2B |
| 2035 | $6.1B | extrapolated at 1.1% | 0.4905 | $2.99B |
| 2036 | $6.16B | extrapolated at 1.1% | 0.4531 | $2.79B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $38.72B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2036 × (1 + 1.1%) / (8.2% − 1.1%) | $86.66B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4531) | $39.27B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $77.99B |
| Shares (diluted) | 1.10B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $70.97 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $5.37 |
| × 11.8 (industry P/E) | $63.19 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $67.08 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 31 Mar 2026
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 11 Nov 2026 ($1 = ¥159.23)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral since 10 Nov 2026, previously Strong
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.