Hilltop Holdings stock
HTHNYSEHilltop Holdings Inc., Financial ServicesISIN US4327481010
51Score 51 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
49 / 100
Price history
+7.1% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 4.4% below it.
Since November 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 48).
The price is 9.8% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 61% (January 2017 to March 2020).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$37.52
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$37.76
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)48
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$32.36
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$40.02
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Hilltop Holdings Inc. belongs to the Banks (Regional) industry (United States) and, with a market value of $2.07B, is number 242 of 422 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $1.28B (up 14.2% year on year) and earnings of $165.59M (up 46.3%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $1.23B (down 3.9%) and adjusted earnings per share of $2.20.
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 51 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 847 of 976 in Financial Services, median 68.
- The P/E is 14.7 (Banks (Regional) median 12.2, own median of recent years 15.2).
- Our model puts fair value at $21.33, with the price 71% above it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Share buybacksShare count down 30% since 2020.Capital allocation 74
- Consistently profitableProfit in all 10 fiscal years from 2016 to 2025.Fundamentals 72
- Reliable dividendNo dividend cut for 10 years.Capital allocation 74
Weaknesses
- Above fair valuePrice 71% above the fair value of $21.33.Valuation 49
- Revenue shrinkingRevenue down 8.8% a year since 2020.Growth 5
- Low return on equityReturn on equity 6.6% over the last 12 months.Profitability 35
Its standout strengths are stability and capital allocation, while profitability and growth hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 52 to 51.
The fundamentals are strong overall.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk low
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the lowest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 14 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What lowers it
- calm price action
- low growth grade (crashed less often in the backtest)
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $15.23 and expensive above $35.54 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $12.51 (excess return model) and $30.14 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $20.28, at 7.8% it would be $22.89.
Valuation metrics
Half from the excess return model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (12.2).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 5.8% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2006, at around 40% per year.
Margins
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: operating 17%, net 13%. Banks and insurers have no gross margin, and their net margin is not comparable with other industries. The score leaves both out.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterFor banks and insurers, deposits and liabilities are the business. Debt to equity and the current ratio say little here, and the score does not rate them.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 28 Jan 2027in 77 days
- Last reported
- 22 Oct 2026EPS reported $0.44 (expected $0.64)below expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2026 earnings estimate by 14.2% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $2.20−14.2%
- Revenue
- $1.23B−2.1%
- Earnings per share
- $2.33−5.7%
- Revenue
- $1.25B−3.3%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: +1.5%Full-year average loan growth outlook for 2026 raised to 5% to 7%.
“Versus the prior-year second quarter, net interest income increased by $5 million or 5.0% driven primarily by lower interest bearing deposit cost coupled with the balance sheet composition shifting from cash into loans held for investment.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 24 Jul 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. One insider sold, $4M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Bobbitt Rhodes RSale
24 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 5,000
- Price
- $38.80
- Value
- $194,000
- Bobbitt Rhodes RSale
21 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 5,000
- Price
- $38.80
- Value
- $194,000
- Bobbitt Rhodes RSale
14 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 10,000
- Price
- $39.80
- Value
- $398,000
Show 8 more
- Bobbitt Rhodes RSale
13 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 10,000
- Price
- $39.50
- Value
- $395,000
- Bobbitt Rhodes RSale
5 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 455
- Price
- $40.25
- Value
- $18,314
- Bobbitt Rhodes RSale
4 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 20,000
- Price
- $40.13
- Value
- $802,500
- Bobbitt Rhodes RSale
3 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 12,100
- Price
- $40.00
- Value
- $484,000
- Bobbitt Rhodes RSale
2 Jun 2026, Board
- Shares
- 10,000
- Price
- $38.00
- Value
- $380,000
- Bobbitt Rhodes RSale
27 May 2026, Board
- Shares
- 10,000
- Price
- $38.00
- Value
- $380,000
- Bobbitt Rhodes RSale
26 May 2026, Board
- Shares
- 10,000
- Price
- $37.75
- Value
- $377,500
- Bobbitt Rhodes RSale
13 May 2026, Board
- Shares
- 10,000
- Price
- $37.25
- Value
- $372,500
Partial trades from one filing are shown in one row, with the average price.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Hilltop Holdings
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
976 rated companies in Financial Services
- This company
- 51
- Sector median
- 68
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Banks (Regional)
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Banco BBVA ArgentinaBBAR $2.18B55
- WaFdWAFD $2.17B61
- OFG BancorpOFG $2.14B81
- 1st SourceSRCE $2.11B78
- First Commonwealth FinancialFCF $2.04B72
- City HoldingCHCO $2.01B75
- BancorpTBBK $1.94B76
- SpareBank 1 Nord-NorgeNONG.OL $1.94B81
ETFs that hold Hilltop Holdings
Held by 14 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| iShares S&P SmallCap 600 UCITS ETFIUS3 | 0.08% | 0.30% | €2.28B |
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.05% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.05% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
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| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.05% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.04% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
| Invesco Global Buyback Achievers UCITS ETFBBCK | 0.03% | 0.39% | €188.08M |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETFIUSN | 0.02% | 0.35% | €8.19B |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.01% | 0.43% | €2.48B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 16 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.