H. Lundbeck stock: fair value
HLUN-B.COThe fair value of H. Lundbeck under our model is $14.56, the price is 40% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $11.20 and expensive above $20.79 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $17.67 (cash-flow model) and $11.44 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.2%. At 8.2% the fair value would be $13.05, at 6.2% it would be $16.82.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (18.9).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.2%. Discounted at 7.2% (floor: government bond yield 2.2% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.84 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $17.67 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $725.03M | extrapolated at 12.2% | 0.9332 | $676.59M |
| 2027 | $791.82M | extrapolated at 9.2% | 0.8708 | $689.54M |
| 2028 | $848M | extrapolated at 7.1% | 0.8126 | $689.13M |
| 2029 | $895.62M | extrapolated at 5.6% | 0.7583 | $679.19M |
| 2030 | $936.63M | extrapolated at 4.6% | 0.7077 | $662.83M |
| 2031 | $972.72M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.6604 | $642.38M |
| 2032 | $1.01B | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.6163 | $619.51M |
| 2033 | $1.04B | extrapolated at 3.0% | 0.5751 | $595.4M |
| 2034 | $1.06B | extrapolated at 2.7% | 0.5367 | $570.85M |
| 2035 | $1.09B | extrapolated at 2.6% | 0.5008 | $546.38M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $6.37B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.2%) / (7.2% − 2.2%) | $22.29B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.5008) | $11.16B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $17.54B |
| Shares (diluted) | 992.15M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $17.67 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.60 |
| × 18.9 (industry P/E) | $11.44 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $14.56 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = DKK 6.7461)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 18 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.