Gran Tierra Energy stock: fair value
GTEThe fair value of Gran Tierra Energy under our model is $24.93, the price is 62% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $16.62 and expensive above $49.85 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.9%. At 9.9% the fair value would be $21.01, at 7.9% it would be $30.74.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50, high risk, weak balance sheet.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.9% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.21 times a risk premium of 4.2%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $24.93 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.9%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.9%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $60.68M | extrapolated at −11.8% | 0.9180 | $55.7M |
| 2027 | $56.38M | extrapolated at −7.1% | 0.8427 | $47.52M |
| 2028 | $54.24M | extrapolated at −3.8% | 0.7736 | $41.96M |
| 2029 | $53.42M | extrapolated at −1.5% | 0.7102 | $37.94M |
| 2030 | $53.46M | extrapolated at 0.1% | 0.6520 | $34.86M |
| 2031 | $54.11M | extrapolated at 1.2% | 0.5985 | $32.39M |
| 2032 | $55.19M | extrapolated at 2.0% | 0.5494 | $30.32M |
| 2033 | $56.6M | extrapolated at 2.6% | 0.5044 | $28.55M |
| 2034 | $58.25M | extrapolated at 2.9% | 0.4630 | $26.97M |
| 2035 | $60.12M | extrapolated at 3.2% | 0.4251 | $25.55M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $361.76M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.9% − 3.8%) | $1.22B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4251) | $520.1M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $881.86M |
| Shares (diluted) | 35.38M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $24.93 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $24.93 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 24 Jan 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.