Gerdau stock: fair value
GGBThe fair value of Gerdau under our model is $2.61, the price is 70% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $1.86 and expensive above $4.34 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $1.00 (cash-flow model) and $4.21 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 17.1%. At 18.1% the fair value would be $2.56, at 16.1% it would be $2.66.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (17.2).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 7.5%. Discounted at 17.1% (government bond yield 7.5% plus beta 1.28 times a risk premium of 7.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $1.00 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 17.1%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 17.1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $286.11M | extrapolated at −17.3% | 0.8540 | $244.34M |
| 2027 | $257.99M | extrapolated at −9.8% | 0.7293 | $188.16M |
| 2028 | $246.06M | extrapolated at −4.6% | 0.6228 | $153.25M |
| 2029 | $243.63M | extrapolated at −1.0% | 0.5319 | $129.59M |
| 2030 | $247.44M | extrapolated at 1.6% | 0.4543 | $112.4M |
| 2031 | $255.72M | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.3879 | $99.2M |
| 2032 | $267.47M | extrapolated at 4.6% | 0.3313 | $88.61M |
| 2033 | $282.11M | extrapolated at 5.5% | 0.2829 | $79.81M |
| 2034 | $299.26M | extrapolated at 6.1% | 0.2416 | $72.31M |
| 2035 | $318.75M | extrapolated at 6.5% | 0.2063 | $65.77M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.23B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 7.5%) / (17.1% − 7.5%) | $3.57B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.2063) | $737.67M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.97B |
| Shares (diluted) | 1.97B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $1.00 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.24 |
| × 17.2 (industry P/E) | $4.21 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $2.61 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = R$5.6169)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 27 Mar 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 10 Nov 2026, previously Fairly valued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.