Citic Pacific Special Steel Group stock: fair value
000708.SZThe fair value of Citic Pacific Special Steel Group under our model is $2.70, the price is 32% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $2.07 and expensive above $3.85 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $2.95 (cash-flow model) and $2.44 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.2%. At 11.2% the fair value would be $2.53, at 9.2% it would be $2.91.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (14.5).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 10.2% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.53 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $2.95 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.29B | extrapolated at −2.3% | 0.9077 | $1.17B |
| 2027 | $1.28B | extrapolated at −0.9% | 0.8239 | $1.06B |
| 2028 | $1.28B | extrapolated at 0.1% | 0.7478 | $958.72M |
| 2029 | $1.29B | extrapolated at 0.7% | 0.6787 | $876.6M |
| 2030 | $1.31B | extrapolated at 1.2% | 0.6161 | $805.28M |
| 2031 | $1.33B | extrapolated at 1.5% | 0.5592 | $742.17M |
| 2032 | $1.35B | extrapolated at 1.8% | 0.5076 | $685.57M |
| 2033 | $1.38B | extrapolated at 1.9% | 0.4607 | $634.29M |
| 2034 | $1.4B | extrapolated at 2.1% | 0.4182 | $587.5M |
| 2035 | $1.43B | extrapolated at 2.1% | 0.3796 | $544.59M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $8.06B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (10.2% − 2.3%) | $18.67B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3796) | $7.09B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $15.15B |
| Shares (diluted) | 5.13B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $2.95 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.17 |
| × 14.5 (industry P/E) | $2.44 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $2.70 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Aug 2023)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.