GEO Group stock
GEONYSEThe GEO Group, Inc., IndustrialsISIN US36162J1060
59Score 59 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
85 / 100
Price history
+116% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 30% above it.
Since May 2026 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 67).
The price is 1.7% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 85% (April 2017 to May 2021).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$30.07
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$24.79
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)67
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$13.26
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$32.77
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- The GEO Group, Inc. belongs to the Security & Protection Services industry (United States) and, with a market value of $4.24B, is number 10 of 20 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $2.63B (up 8.6% year on year) and earnings of $254.37M (up 695.8%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $2.99B (up 13.7%) and adjusted earnings per share of $1.35 (up 57%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 59 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 573 of 1023 in Industrials, median 61.
- The P/E is 25.5 (Security & Protection Services median 24.1, own median of recent years 14).
- Our model puts fair value at $49.04, with the price 33% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Below fair valuePrice 33% below the fair value of $49.04.Valuation 73
- Consistently profitableProfit in all 10 fiscal years from 2016 to 2025.Fundamentals 61
- Analysts expect strong earnings growthUp 22.1% a year through 2027 (estimates from 3 analysts).
Weaknesses
- Negative free cash flowFree cash flow −$124.9M over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 61
- DilutionShare count up 17% since 2020.Capital allocation 41
- Volatile share priceVolatility 51% a year over the last 12 months.Stability 52
Its standout strengths are momentum and technical analysis, while capital allocation and growth hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- price up very strongly over the past year
What lowers it
- price near its 52-week high
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $35.03 and expensive above $81.74 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $67.69 (cash-flow model) and $30.39 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $42.87, at 7.8% it would be $58.35.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (24.1).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 14.8% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2006, at about 6% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 25%, operating 10%, net 10%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is elevated. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 11 Feb 2027in 91 days
- Last reported
- 5 Nov 2026EPS reported $0.39 (expected $0.35)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have raised their 2026 earnings estimate by 3.1% since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $1.35+3.1%
- Revenue
- $2.99B0.0%
- Earnings per share
- $1.850.0%
- Revenue
- $3.26B0.0%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: −2.3%2026 guidance raised: net income of $168 million to $175 million, adjusted EBITDA of $550 million to $560 million, and revenue of $2.95 billion to $3.05 billion.
“We have increased our full year 2026 GAAP net income guidance to a range of $168 million to $175 million or a range of $1.27 to $1.32 per diluted share on annual revenues of $2.95 billion to $3.05 billion and based on an effective tax rate of approximately 30% inclusive of known discrete items.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 6 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. 3 insiders sold, $1.02M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Albence MatthewSale
11 Sept 2026, Senior VP, Client Relations
- Shares
- 11,797
- Price
- $31.46
- Value
- $371,075
- Brack Ronald A.Sale
21 Aug 2026, See Remarks
- Shares
- 7,000
- Price
- $32.00
- Value
- $224,000
- Albence MatthewSale
20 Aug 2026, Senior VP, Client Relations
- Shares
- 10,000
- Price
- $31.69
- Value
- $316,860
Show 1 more
- Koren Lindsay L.Sale
13 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 3,500
- Price
- $31.31
- Value
- $109,568
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at GEO Group
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
1023 rated companies in Industrials
- This company
- 59
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Security & Protection Services
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- ADTADT $7.25B65
- Zhejiang Dahua Technology002236.SZ $7.04B49
- MSA SafetyMSA $6.8B72
- Brink'sBCO $4.81B68
- BradyBRC $3.86B71
- LoomisLOOMIS.ST $3.54B74
- dormakaba HoldingDOKA.SW $3.46B68
- CoreCivicCXW $2.82B69
ETFs that hold GEO Group
Held by 10 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| iShares S&P SmallCap 600 UCITS ETFIUS3 | 0.20% | 0.30% | €2.28B |
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.14% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.13% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
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| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.11% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.06% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRS | 0.03% | 0.45% | €1.53B |
| UBS MSCI USA Select Factor Mix UCITS ETF USD accUSUE | 0.01% | 0.25% | €175.89M |
| Vanguard FTSE Global All-Cap UCITS ETF Accum USDVGLA | 0.00% | 0.07% | €3.9B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 20 Mar 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.