Develia stock: fair value
DVL.WAThe fair value of Develia under our model is $3.06, the price is 31% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $2.35 and expensive above $4.37 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $2.40 (cash-flow model) and $3.72 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.6%. At 11.6% the fair value would be $2.86, at 9.6% it would be $3.36.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (11.5).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 5.6%. Discounted at 10.6% (floor: government bond yield 5.6% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $2.40 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.6%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.6%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $47.13M | extrapolated at 13.9% | 0.9045 | $42.63M |
| 2027 | $52.49M | extrapolated at 11.4% | 0.8181 | $42.94M |
| 2028 | $57.55M | extrapolated at 9.6% | 0.7400 | $42.58M |
| 2029 | $62.39M | extrapolated at 8.4% | 0.6693 | $41.76M |
| 2030 | $67.1M | extrapolated at 7.6% | 0.6054 | $40.62M |
| 2031 | $71.77M | extrapolated at 7.0% | 0.5475 | $39.3M |
| 2032 | $76.46M | extrapolated at 6.5% | 0.4952 | $37.87M |
| 2033 | $81.24M | extrapolated at 6.2% | 0.4479 | $36.39M |
| 2034 | $86.14M | extrapolated at 6.0% | 0.4052 | $34.9M |
| 2035 | $91.22M | extrapolated at 5.9% | 0.3665 | $33.43M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $392.41M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 5.6%) / (10.6% − 5.6%) | $1.93B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3665) | $705.74M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.1B |
| Shares (diluted) | 457.96M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $2.40 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.32 |
| × 11.5 (industry P/E) | $3.72 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $3.06 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = PLN 3.9742)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong since 10 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.