Aedas Homes stock: fair value
AEDAS.MCThe fair value of Aedas Homes under our model is $39.26, the price is 33% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $28.05 and expensive above $65.44 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $61.01 (cash-flow model) and $17.52 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.5%. At 9.5% the fair value would be $34.35, at 7.5% it would be $46.37.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (11.5).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.0%. Discounted at 8.5% (government bond yield 3.0% plus beta 0.95 times a risk premium of 5.8%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $61.01 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.5%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $101.81M | extrapolated at 23.7% | 0.9220 | $93.87M |
| 2028 | $119.58M | extrapolated at 17.5% | 0.8501 | $101.65M |
| 2029 | $135.24M | extrapolated at 13.1% | 0.7837 | $106M |
| 2030 | $148.85M | extrapolated at 10.1% | 0.7226 | $107.56M |
| 2031 | $160.65M | extrapolated at 7.9% | 0.6662 | $107.03M |
| 2032 | $171M | extrapolated at 6.4% | 0.6142 | $105.03M |
| 2033 | $180.22M | extrapolated at 5.4% | 0.5663 | $102.06M |
| 2034 | $188.63M | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.5221 | $98.49M |
| 2035 | $196.46M | extrapolated at 4.2% | 0.4814 | $94.58M |
| 2036 | $203.92M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.4438 | $90.51M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.01B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2036 × (1 + 3.0%) / (8.5% − 3.0%) | $3.82B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4438) | $1.69B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $2.7B |
| Shares (diluted) | 44.27M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $61.01 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.52 |
| × 11.5 (industry P/E) | $17.52 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $39.26 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Mar 2026
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 28 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.