CTO Realty Growth stock
CTONYSECTO Realty Growth, Inc., Real EstateISIN US22948Q1013
55Score 55 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
78 / 100
Price history
+16% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 0.5% below it.
Since December 2025 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 57).
The price is 10% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 73% (February 2007 to March 2009).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$20.40
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$20.34
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)57
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$17.09
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$22.53
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- CTO Realty Growth, Inc. belongs to the REIT (Diversified) industry (United States) and, with a market value of $784.51M, is number 16 of 27 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $180.43M (up 20.7%) and adjusted earnings per share of $0.73 (up 711.1%).
- MEQIRI Score 55 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 163 of 327 in Real Estate, median 55.
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- The P/E is 19.6 (REIT (Diversified) median 17.3, own median of recent years 10).
- For real estate investment trusts (REITs) what counts is funds from operations (FFO and AFFO). The P/E and the payout ratio of earnings say little here, because depreciation on properties depresses earnings.
- Our model puts fair value at $30.37, with the price 33% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Growing faster than its industryRevenue up 21.5% a year since 2020, REIT (Diversified) median 8%.Growth 54
- Below fair valuePrice 33% below the fair value of $30.37.Valuation 86
- Reliable dividendNo dividend cut for 16 years.
Weaknesses
- DilutionShare count up 129% since 2020.Capital allocation 27
- Earnings per share fallingDown 57.2% a year since 2020.Growth 54
- Interest barely coveredOperating profit covers interest only 1.4 times.Stability 46
Its standout strengths are valuation and technical analysis, while fundamentals and capital allocation hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 54 to 55.
Fundamental quality fluctuates.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- weak fundamentals
What lowers it
- calm price action
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $25.31 and expensive above $37.96 (uncertainty low, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $40.33 (cash-flow model) and $20.41 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $27.00, at 7.8% it would be $35.44.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from operating cash flow per share times the median price to cash flow of the REIT industry (11.6). For the fair value, FFO only counts when it is in line with operating cash flow. That is not the case here, for example because the REIT carries its properties at market value, records little depreciation or a gain on sale sits in earnings. The cash-flow model uses AFFO: operating cash flow less maintenance, estimated at 4% of revenue. New construction and acquisitions do not count as running costs there.
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 15.9% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2006, at about 7% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross −6%, operating 22%, net 7%. Last 12 months: net 26%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is elevated. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 18 Feb 2027in 98 days
- Last reported
- 27 Oct 2026EPS reported −$0.19 (expected $0.20)below expectations
Analyst estimates
- Earnings per share
- $0.73−21.8%
- Revenue
- $180.43M+2.1%
- Earnings per share
- $0.87−3.0%
- Revenue
- $202.93M+4.5%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: +0.7%CTO Realty Growth raised its 2026 Core FFO guidance to $2.11 to $2.14 per share from $2.09 to $2.13, and increased its investment volume target to about $472 million from a prior $300 million to $400 million.
“We are raising our 2026 Core FFO guidance to a range of $2.11 to $2.14 per diluted share up from $2.09 to $2.13.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 28 Oct 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at CTO Realty Growth
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
327 rated companies in Real Estate
- This company
- 55
- Sector median
- 55
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in REIT (Diversified)
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- GMP Property SOCIMIYGMP.MC $1.32B64
- IcadeICAD.PA $1.28B37
- Cpi Fim S.a.OPG.WA $1.09B49
- Empire State Realty TrustESRT $900.43M45
- SafeholdSAFE $733.46M46
- JBG SMITH PropertiesJBGS $712.87M35
- AH Realty TrustAHRT $606.11M48
- Nextensa NV/SANEXTA.BR $518.96M55
ETFs that hold CTO Realty Growth
Held by 5 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| WisdomTree US High Dividend UCITS ETF AccWTD9 | 0.04% | 0.29% | €182.46M |
| WisdomTree US Equity Income UCITS ETF EUR Hedged AccWTDY | 0.04% | 0.35% | €204.34M |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.02% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
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| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.02% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 3 Apr 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.