CF Industries Holdings stock
CFNYSECF Industries Holdings, Inc., Basic MaterialsISIN US1252691001
86Score 86 out of 100, Strong
Price and trend
82 / 100
Price history
+47% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 4.9% above it.
Since February 2026 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 57).
The price is 12% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 77% (June 2008 to November 2008).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$121.90
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$117.52
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)57
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$76.09
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$139.27
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- CF Industries Holdings, Inc. belongs to the Agricultural Inputs industry (United States) and, with a market value of $18.03B, is number 2 of 20 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $7.08B (up 19.3% year on year) and earnings of $1.46B (up 19.5%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $8.16B (up 15.2%) and adjusted earnings per share of $15.05 (up 60.1%).
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- MEQIRI Score 86 out of 100 (Strong): rank 1 of 467 in Basic Materials, median 58.
- The P/E is 8.6 (Agricultural Inputs median 14.4, own median of recent years 16.6).
- Our model puts fair value at $176.12, with the price 30% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings per share growingUp 43.4% a year since 2020.Growth 87
- Share buybacksShare count down 25% since 2020.Capital allocation 96
- Reliable dividendNo dividend cut for 21 years.Capital allocation 96
Weaknesses
- Analysts expect falling earningsDown 21% a year through 2028 (estimates from 10 analysts).
Its standout strengths are capital allocation and valuation.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among stocks ranked 101 to 1,000.
From 2016 to 2025, 23 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 15 in 100.
What drives the risk
- cyclical sector (energy or materials), as a group, crashed more often in the backtest
- high growth grade (crashed more often in the backtest)
What lowers it
- solid fundamentals
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $125.80 and expensive above $293.54 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $145.13 (cash-flow model) and $207.12 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $166.46, at 7.8% it would be $190.45.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (14.4).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 17.9% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2006, at about 7% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 38%, operating 33%, net 21%. Last 12 months: net 27%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterThe balance sheet is solid, with moderate debt and comfortable interest coverage.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 17 Feb 2027in 97 days
- Last reported
- 4 Nov 2026EPS reported $2.87 (expected $3.00)below expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have raised their 2027 earnings estimate by 3.3% since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $15.05+0.5%
- Revenue
- $8.16B+0.3%
- Earnings per share
- $11.65+3.3%
- Revenue
- $7.43B+0.9%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: −2.0%Mid-cycle EBITDA and free cash flow expectations were raised, with mid-cycle EBITDA targeted at about $3.3 billion by 2030.
“By 2030, we expect these strategic initiatives that are in flight to raise our mid-cycle EBITDA to approximately $3.3 billion.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 6 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
- Mayer Erik M.Sale
17 Mar 2026, VP, Clean Energy & BusDevelop
- Shares
- 1,500
- Price
- $124.69
- Value
- $187,035
- Hoker Richard ASale
17 Mar 2026, VP and Corporate Controller
- Shares
- 3,499
- Price
- $125.38
- Value
- $438,705
- Frost Bert ASale
17 Mar 2026, EVP, Chief Commercial Officer
- Shares
- 6,000
- Price
- $126.00
- Value
- $756,000
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- Will W AnthonySale
13 Mar 2026, Board
- Shares
- 53,026
- Price
- $130.83
- Value
- $6.94M
- Menzel Susan LSale
12 Mar 2026, EVP and Chief Admin. Officer
- Shares
- 18,041
- Price
- $136.06
- Value
- $2.45M
- Frost Bert ASale
12 Mar 2026, EVP, Chief Commercial Officer
- Shares
- 6,250
- Price
- $136.69
- Value
- $854,316
- Will W AnthonySale
11 Mar 2026, Board
- Shares
- 28,625
- Price
- $118.64
- Value
- $3.4M
- Frost Bert ASale
9 Mar 2026, EVP, Chief Commercial Officer
- Shares
- 5,534
- Price
- $116.21
- Value
- $643,106
Partial trades from one filing are shown in one row, with the average price.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at CF Industries Holdings
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
467 rated companies in Basic Materials
- This company
- 86
- Sector median
- 58
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Agricultural Inputs
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- NutrienNTR $34.12B63
- Qinghai Salt Lake Industry000792.SZ $17.63B71
- Yara InternationalYAR.OL $10.92B64
- CortevaCTVA $8.1B61
- Yunnan Yuntianhua600096.SS $7.31B51
- MosaicMOS $7.25B46
- Coromandel InternationalCOROMANDEL.NS $6.26B61
- ICL GroupICL $5.9B57
ETFs that hold CF Industries Holdings
Held by 93 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| iShares S&P 500 Materials Sector UCITS ETF2B7B | 1.58% | 0.15% | €180.37M |
| State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Materials Select Sector UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPDM | 1.56% | 0.15% | €52.49M |
| Franklin Global Quality Dividend UCITS ETFFLXX | 0.79% | 0.30% | €127.44M |
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| Xtrackers MSCI World Materials UCITS ETF 1CXDWM | 0.64% | 0.25% | €715.95M |
| First Trust US Large Cap Core AlphaDEX UCITS ETFFTGU | 0.45% | 0.75% | €140.24M |
| iShares STOXX USA Equity Multifactor UCITS ETFIBCY | 0.38% | 0.20% | €47.95M |
| Invesco S&P 500 QVM UCITS ETFQVMP | 0.33% | 0.35% | €50.82M |
| iShares MSCI USA Mid-Cap Equal Weight UCITS ETFQDVC | 0.31% | 0.20% | €268.74M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Jul 2024)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.