Callaway Golf stock: fair value
CALYThe fair value of Callaway Golf under our model is $20.81, the price is 20% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $14.87 and expensive above $34.69 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $25.23 (cash-flow model) and $16.40 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $18.64, at 7.8% it would be $24.07.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (22.6).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.86 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $25.23 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $174.24M | extrapolated at 19.2% | 0.9189 | $160.1M |
| 2027 | $199.6M | extrapolated at 14.5% | 0.8443 | $168.52M |
| 2028 | $222.22M | extrapolated at 11.3% | 0.7758 | $172.4M |
| 2029 | $242.41M | extrapolated at 9.1% | 0.7129 | $172.81M |
| 2030 | $260.62M | extrapolated at 7.5% | 0.6550 | $170.71M |
| 2031 | $277.31M | extrapolated at 6.4% | 0.6019 | $166.91M |
| 2032 | $292.93M | extrapolated at 5.6% | 0.5530 | $162M |
| 2033 | $307.84M | extrapolated at 5.1% | 0.5082 | $156.44M |
| 2034 | $322.35M | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.4669 | $150.52M |
| 2035 | $336.69M | extrapolated at 4.5% | 0.4291 | $144.46M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.62B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $6.99B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $3B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $4.62B |
| Shares (diluted) | 183.30M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $25.23 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.72 |
| × 22.6 (industry P/E) | $16.40 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $20.81 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 2 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.