Asmodee Group stock: fair value
ASMDEE-B.STThe fair value of Asmodee Group under our model is $18.05, the price is 5% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $12.90 and expensive above $30.09 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $31.19 (cash-flow model) and $4.92 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.1%. At 8.1% the fair value would be $15.34, at 6.1% it would be $22.14.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (22.6).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.1%. Discounted at 7.1% (floor: government bond yield 2.1% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.93 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $31.19 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.1%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $249.34M | extrapolated at 23.2% | 0.9334 | $232.72M |
| 2028 | $291.5M | extrapolated at 16.9% | 0.8712 | $253.94M |
| 2029 | $327.88M | extrapolated at 12.5% | 0.8131 | $266.6M |
| 2030 | $358.63M | extrapolated at 9.4% | 0.7589 | $272.17M |
| 2031 | $384.47M | extrapolated at 7.2% | 0.7083 | $272.34M |
| 2032 | $406.33M | extrapolated at 5.7% | 0.6611 | $268.64M |
| 2033 | $425.12M | extrapolated at 4.6% | 0.6171 | $262.33M |
| 2034 | $441.6M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.5760 | $254.34M |
| 2035 | $456.42M | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.5376 | $245.36M |
| 2036 | $470.08M | extrapolated at 3.0% | 0.5017 | $235.86M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $2.56B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2036 × (1 + 2.1%) / (7.1% − 2.1%) | $9.6B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.5017) | $4.82B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $7.38B |
| Shares (diluted) | 236.72M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $31.19 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.22 |
| × 22.6 (industry P/E) | $4.92 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $18.05 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Mar 2026
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = SEK 9.9729, $1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 17 Apr 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.