BP p.l.c. stock: fair value
BPThe fair value of BP p.l.c. under our model is $50.26, the price is 9% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $38.66 and expensive above $71.80 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $61.00 (cash-flow model) and $39.52 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $45.30, at 7.8% it would be $57.69.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (11.6).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.84 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $61.00 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $9.62B | extrapolated at −5.9% | 0.9189 | $8.84B |
| 2027 | $9.33B | extrapolated at −3.0% | 0.8443 | $7.88B |
| 2028 | $9.24B | extrapolated at −1.0% | 0.7758 | $7.17B |
| 2029 | $9.29B | extrapolated at 0.5% | 0.7129 | $6.62B |
| 2030 | $9.43B | extrapolated at 1.5% | 0.6550 | $6.17B |
| 2031 | $9.63B | extrapolated at 2.2% | 0.6019 | $5.8B |
| 2032 | $9.89B | extrapolated at 2.7% | 0.5530 | $5.47B |
| 2033 | $10.19B | extrapolated at 3.0% | 0.5082 | $5.18B |
| 2034 | $10.52B | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.4669 | $4.91B |
| 2035 | $10.89B | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.4291 | $4.67B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $62.72B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $226.07B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $96.99B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $159.71B |
| Shares (diluted) | 2.62B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $61.00 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $3.42 |
| × 11.6 (industry P/E) | $39.52 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $50.26 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 3 Nov 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.