China Petroleum & Chemical stock: fair value
600028.SSThe fair value of China Petroleum & Chemical under our model is $0.45, the price is 89% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $0.32 and expensive above $0.74 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $0.29 (cash-flow model) and $0.60 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.3%. At 8.3% the fair value would be $0.42, at 6.3% it would be $0.48.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (11.8).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 7.3% (floor: government bond yield 2.3% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.96 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $0.29 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.07B | extrapolated at −25.7% | 0.9319 | $2.86B |
| 2027 | $2.54B | extrapolated at −17.3% | 0.8684 | $2.21B |
| 2028 | $2.25B | extrapolated at −11.4% | 0.8092 | $1.82B |
| 2029 | $2.09B | extrapolated at −7.3% | 0.7541 | $1.58B |
| 2030 | $2B | extrapolated at −4.4% | 0.7027 | $1.4B |
| 2031 | $1.95B | extrapolated at −2.4% | 0.6549 | $1.28B |
| 2032 | $1.93B | extrapolated at −1.0% | 0.6103 | $1.18B |
| 2033 | $1.93B | extrapolated at 0.0% | 0.5687 | $1.1B |
| 2034 | $1.94B | extrapolated at 0.7% | 0.5300 | $1.03B |
| 2035 | $1.97B | extrapolated at 1.2% | 0.4939 | $971.4M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $15.43B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (7.3% − 2.3%) | $40.25B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4939) | $19.88B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $35.31B |
| Shares (diluted) | 120.68B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $0.29 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.05 |
| × 11.8 (industry P/E) | $0.60 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $0.45 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 16 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.