Bilibili stock: fair value
BILIThe fair value of Bilibili under our model is $43.67, the price is 69% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $31.20 and expensive above $72.79 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $79.20 (cash-flow model) and $8.14 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.7%. At 10.7% the fair value would be $38.43, at 8.7% it would be $50.59.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50, weak balance sheet.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (16.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 9.7% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.44 times a risk premium of 5.2%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $79.20 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.7%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.7%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.22B | extrapolated at 47.9% | 0.9113 | $1.11B |
| 2027 | $1.64B | extrapolated at 34.2% | 0.8305 | $1.36B |
| 2028 | $2.05B | extrapolated at 24.7% | 0.7568 | $1.55B |
| 2029 | $2.41B | extrapolated at 18.0% | 0.6897 | $1.66B |
| 2030 | $2.73B | extrapolated at 13.3% | 0.6286 | $1.72B |
| 2031 | $3.01B | extrapolated at 10.0% | 0.5728 | $1.72B |
| 2032 | $3.24B | extrapolated at 7.7% | 0.5220 | $1.69B |
| 2033 | $3.43B | extrapolated at 6.1% | 0.4757 | $1.63B |
| 2034 | $3.6B | extrapolated at 4.9% | 0.4335 | $1.56B |
| 2035 | $3.75B | extrapolated at 4.2% | 0.3951 | $1.48B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $15.49B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (9.7% − 2.3%) | $51.72B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3951) | $20.43B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $35.93B |
| Shares (diluted) | 453.58M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $79.20 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.51 |
| × 16.1 (industry P/E) | $8.14 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $43.67 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 13 Feb 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.