Aegon stock: fair value
AGN.ASThe fair value of Aegon under our model is $14.45, the price is 40% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $10.32 and expensive above $24.08 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $19.84 (excess return model) and $9.05 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.3%. At 8.3% the fair value would be $12.79, at 6.3% it would be $16.93.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but high risk.
Where the number comes from
Half from the excess return model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (13.5).
Excess return model for banks and insurers: book value plus the value of returns above the cost of equity of 7.3% (floor: government bond yield 2.3% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.86 times the risk premium would give less).
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the excess return model arrives at $19.84 per share: book value plus the value of what the company earns above its cost of equity over time. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Book value per share | $6.28 |
| Stable earnings per share (analyst estimates) | $1.14 |
| Return on equity in the model (stable earnings divided by book value) | 18.1% |
| Cost of equity | 7.3% |
| Excess return per share: (return − cost) × book value | $0.68 |
| Terminal value of excess returns: excess return / (7.3% − 2.3%) | $13.56 |
| Value per share (book value plus terminal value) | $19.84 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.67 |
| × 13.5 (industry P/E) | $9.05 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $14.45 |
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 18 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.