Arch Capital Group stock
ACGLNASDAQArch Capital Group Ltd., Financial ServicesISIN BMG0450A1053
86Score 86 out of 100, Strong
Price and trend
83 / 100
Price history
+20% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 12% above it.
Since December 2025 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 65).
The price is 1.4% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 54% (February 2020 to May 2020).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$99.46
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$97.46
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)65
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$87.62
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$110.68
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Arch Capital Group Ltd. belongs to the Insurance (Diversified) industry (Bermuda) and, with a market value of $35.54B, is number 13 of 43 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $19.93B (up 14.3% year on year) and earnings of $4.4B (up 2%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $16.44B (down 17.5%) and adjusted earnings per share of $10.12 (up 2.5%).
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- MEQIRI Score 86 out of 100 (Strong): rank 9 of 976 in Financial Services, median 68.
- The P/E is 8.6 (Insurance (Diversified) median 13.9, own median of recent years 10.7).
- Our model puts fair value at $164.17, with the price 34% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings per share growingUp 28.5% a year since 2020.Growth 93
- High return on equityReturn on equity 18.3% over the last 12 months.Profitability 77
- Growing faster than its industryRevenue up 19.2% a year since 2020, Insurance (Diversified) median 6.6%.Growth 93
Weaknesses
None of our weakness checks flags anything. Crash risk is measured separately.
Its standout strengths are valuation and growth.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
The fundamentals are strong overall.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk low
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the lowest crash risk among stocks ranked 101 to 1,000.
From 2016 to 2025, 9 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 15 in 100.
What drives the risk
- high growth grade (crashed more often in the backtest)
What lowers it
- solid fundamentals
- price near its 52-week high
- calm price action
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $136.81 and expensive above $205.21 (uncertainty low, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $151.64 (excess return model) and $176.71 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $151.54, at 7.8% it would be $183.13.
Valuation metrics
Half from the excess return model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (13.9).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue fell 3.5% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2006, at about 10% per year.
Margins
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: operating 25%, net 22%. Banks and insurers have no gross margin, and their net margin is not comparable with other industries. The score leaves both out.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterFor banks and insurers, deposits and liabilities are the business. Debt to equity and the current ratio say little here, and the score does not rate them.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 8 Feb 2027in 88 days
- Last reported
- 27 Oct 2026EPS reported $2.67 (expected $2.31)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have raised their 2026 earnings estimate by 3.3% since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $10.12+3.3%
- Revenue
- $16.44B+0.3%
- Earnings per share
- $9.95+1.5%
- Revenue
- $16.3B−0.1%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook mixed
Share price after the results: +3.6%Arch still expects only low single-digit growth in insurance and a tailwind from higher interest rates on investment income, but warns of continued pressure on reinsurance pricing and premiums, especially in catastrophe property.
“Clearly, we expect some continued pressure on the short-tail book, catastrophe, excess of loss, and other property, which is a big part of the portfolio in reinsurance, much bigger part than in insurance.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 28 Oct 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. One insider sold, $1.09M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Morin FrancoisSale
18 Aug 2026, CFO and Treasurer
- Shares
- 11,010
- Price
- $99.32
- Value
- $1.09M
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Arch Capital Group
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
976 rated companies in Financial Services
- This company
- 86
- Sector median
- 68
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Insurance (Diversified)
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- China Pacific Insurance (Group)601601.SS $42.05B67
- Sun Life FinancialSLF $41.02B63
- TalanxTLX.DE $37.61B84
- Hartford Insurance GroupHIG $36.68B83
- Swiss Life HoldingSLHN.SW $32.86B67
- SampoSAMPO.HE $29.04B75
- Helvetia HoldingHBAN.SW $27.18B56
- Unipol GruppoUNI.MI $24.35B77
ETFs that hold Arch Capital Group
Held by 135 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Street SPDR S&P 500 Low Volatility UCITS ETF (Acc)SPY1 | 1.02% | 0.35% | €106.3M |
| Invesco S&P 500 QVM UCITS ETFQVMP | 0.65% | 0.35% | €50.82M |
| UBS Factor MSCI USA Low Volatility UCITS ETF USD disUBUR | 0.62% | 0.18% | €64.75M |
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| Invesco Global Buyback Achievers UCITS ETFBBCK | 0.61% | 0.39% | €188.08M |
| iShares Edge S&P 500 Minimum Volatility UCITS ETFIBCK | 0.61% | 0.20% | €1.97B |
| UBS Factor MSCI USA Prime Value Screened UCITS ETF hEUR accUBUW | 0.58% | 0.28% | €127.84M |
| First Trust US Large Cap Core AlphaDEX UCITS ETFFTGU | 0.53% | 0.75% | €140.24M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Value UCITS ETF USD AccZPRU | 0.48% | 0.20% | €294.97M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 28 Feb 2021)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.