Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group stock: fair value
688385.SSThe fair value of Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group under our model is $3.69, the price is 112% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $2.46 and expensive above $7.38 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $0.40 (cash-flow model) and $6.97 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 11.7%. At 12.7% the fair value would be $3.67, at 10.7% it would be $3.71.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (39.8).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 11.7% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.82 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $0.40 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 11.7%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 11.7%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $31.23M | extrapolated at 1.7% | 0.8955 | $27.96M |
| 2027 | $31.81M | extrapolated at 1.9% | 0.8019 | $25.51M |
| 2028 | $32.45M | extrapolated at 2.0% | 0.7182 | $23.3M |
| 2029 | $33.13M | extrapolated at 2.1% | 0.6431 | $21.31M |
| 2030 | $33.85M | extrapolated at 2.2% | 0.5759 | $19.49M |
| 2031 | $34.59M | extrapolated at 2.2% | 0.5157 | $17.84M |
| 2032 | $35.37M | extrapolated at 2.2% | 0.4619 | $16.33M |
| 2033 | $36.17M | extrapolated at 2.3% | 0.4136 | $14.96M |
| 2034 | $36.99M | extrapolated at 2.3% | 0.3704 | $13.7M |
| 2035 | $37.83M | extrapolated at 2.3% | 0.3317 | $12.55M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $192.97M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (11.7% − 2.3%) | $413.66M |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3317) | $137.2M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $330.17M |
| Shares (diluted) | 823.72M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $0.40 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.18 |
| × 39.8 (industry P/E) | $6.97 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $3.69 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 18 Sep 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 10 Nov 2026, previously Fairly valued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.