Shannon Semiconductor Technology stock: fair value
300475.SZThe fair value of Shannon Semiconductor Technology under our model is $40.35, the price is 64% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $26.90 and expensive above $80.70 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $12.44 (cash-flow model) and $68.26 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.6%. At 13.6% the fair value would be $39.72, at 11.6% it would be $41.12.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but high risk.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (39.8).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 12.6% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 2 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $12.44 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.6%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.6%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $308.16M | extrapolated at 44.2% | 0.8882 | $273.7M |
| 2027 | $405.53M | extrapolated at 31.6% | 0.7889 | $319.9M |
| 2028 | $498.03M | extrapolated at 22.8% | 0.7006 | $348.94M |
| 2029 | $581.01M | extrapolated at 16.7% | 0.6223 | $361.56M |
| 2030 | $652.79M | extrapolated at 12.4% | 0.5527 | $360.81M |
| 2031 | $713.77M | extrapolated at 9.3% | 0.4909 | $350.4M |
| 2032 | $765.39M | extrapolated at 7.2% | 0.4360 | $333.72M |
| 2033 | $809.45M | extrapolated at 5.8% | 0.3873 | $313.47M |
| 2034 | $847.67M | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.3440 | $291.56M |
| 2035 | $881.56M | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.3055 | $269.31M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $3.22B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (12.6% − 2.3%) | $8.77B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3055) | $2.68B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $5.9B |
| Shares (diluted) | 474.50M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $12.44 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.72 |
| × 39.8 (industry P/E) | $68.26 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $40.35 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 2 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.