Beijing Compass Technology Development stock: fair value
300803.SZThe fair value of Beijing Compass Technology Development under our model is $10.31, the price is 37% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $7.37 and expensive above $17.19 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $19.73 (cash-flow model) and $0.90 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.1%. At 10.1% the fair value would be $8.94, at 8.1% it would be $12.17.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (32.4).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 9.1% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.32 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $19.73 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.1%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $597.34M | extrapolated at 34.8% | 0.9168 | $547.66M |
| 2027 | $747.08M | extrapolated at 25.1% | 0.8406 | $627.97M |
| 2028 | $883.34M | extrapolated at 18.2% | 0.7707 | $680.75M |
| 2029 | $1B | extrapolated at 13.5% | 0.7066 | $708.14M |
| 2030 | $1.1B | extrapolated at 10.1% | 0.6478 | $714.92M |
| 2031 | $1.19B | extrapolated at 7.8% | 0.5939 | $706.41M |
| 2032 | $1.26B | extrapolated at 6.1% | 0.5445 | $687.38M |
| 2033 | $1.33B | extrapolated at 5.0% | 0.4992 | $661.64M |
| 2034 | $1.38B | extrapolated at 4.2% | 0.4577 | $631.99M |
| 2035 | $1.43B | extrapolated at 3.6% | 0.4196 | $600.41M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $6.57B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (9.1% − 2.3%) | $21.65B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4196) | $9.08B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $15.65B |
| Shares (diluted) | 793.36M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $19.73 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.03 |
| × 32.4 (industry P/E) | $0.90 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $10.31 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.