Yalla Group stock: fair value
YALAThe fair value of Yalla Group under our model is $18.51, the price is 70% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $14.24 and expensive above $26.44 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $12.59 (cash-flow model) and $24.43 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.1%. At 11.1% the fair value would be $17.65, at 9.1% it would be $19.70.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (31.3).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 10.1% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.29 times a risk premium of 4.9%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $12.59 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.1%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $140.15M | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.9082 | $127.29M |
| 2027 | $144.8M | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.8249 | $119.45M |
| 2028 | $149.83M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.7492 | $112.25M |
| 2029 | $155.2M | extrapolated at 3.6% | 0.6804 | $105.6M |
| 2030 | $160.87M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.6180 | $99.41M |
| 2031 | $166.84M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.5613 | $93.64M |
| 2032 | $173.08M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.5098 | $88.23M |
| 2033 | $179.61M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.4630 | $83.15M |
| 2034 | $186.41M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.4205 | $78.38M |
| 2035 | $193.5M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.3819 | $73.9M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $981.3M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (10.1% − 3.8%) | $3.2B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3819) | $1.22B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $2.2B |
| Shares (diluted) | 175.05M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $12.59 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.78 |
| × 31.3 (industry P/E) | $24.43 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $18.51 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral since 11 Nov 2026, previously Strong
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.